- The Baylor Bears are a 10.5 point favorite on the spread vs the California Santa Barbara Gauchos.
- Without much history to find a trend against the Gauchos, those betting on Baylor should consider the -600 odds moneyline.
DENVER – UC-Santa Barbara hasn’t been a 10+ point dog since December 2018. Despite a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games like this, this CBB betting trend covers the 2016-2018 seasons. Without any players still active on their roster, be wary of any trend showing their success as a major dog.
Even in their last six games as a six or more point dog, none came from this season. With a 1-5 ATS record in these games, it shows analysts can pull any stat to make their side work.
UCSB Impossible To Handicap
In short, Santa Barbara is playing in unfamiliar territory. They’ve only been an underdog four times this season and three more times in conference play during early 2022. But in those seven games, no spread at legal sports betting sites exceeded seven points and they went 3-1 SU and ATS.
Instead, a recap of their tournament betting history could be better. Sitting 1-9 SU in the tournament, a 2021 meeting against Creighton was their last matchup in the postseason. Only losing by a point on a 7.5-point spread, the Gauchos do see three players returning for another tournament game in Miles Norris, Ajare Sanni, Josh Pierre-Louis.
Santa Barbara Player Props
- Miles Norris To Have 15+ Points And 6+ Total Rebounds +210
- Josh Pierre-Louis To Have 13+ Points And 3+ Assists +350
These premade parlays come with long odds for a reason. Props on Miles Norris show a 14.5-point projection but the 5.5 rebound projection shows heavy shading (-135). At these numbers, the Norris props list at +227, removing potential value at the given +210 odds.
While this may not seem like a big difference, betting $100 equates to a different of $17, but a $500 bet shows a difference of almost $100 between the two bets.
As for bets on Josh Pierre-Louis, his premade bet has hit three times this season. But, that is over the course of 29 games and two of those came against UC Davis.
Instead, a single rebound prop bet on Josh Pierre-Louis’s 4.5 total would be the play for the over. He has hit this mark in six of his last 11 games, and had four in two other instances.
Betting On Baylor
For those who have Baylor advancing in their bracket, a -600 odds bet on their moneyline may be expensive but worth it. Since the start of 2022, the Baylor Bears have lost two games as a 10-point favorite or more, but sport 15 wins over that time.
For this season, the Bears are 8-0 in these matchups, averaging 84.5 points. Only scoring over 90 points twice in those games, their consistency is noted.
Now they are 4-4 ATS for these games, but their defense has stepped it up majorly as of late. Only allowing an average of 56 points in their last five large favorite games, the under has hit in all five as well on college basketball sportsbook sites.
UCSB’s point total sits at 65.5, so betting the under on their total may make more sense than taking under the game total of 141.5. Even if UCSB is held to 60 points, Baylor exceeded 82 is a real possibility.
At the end of the day, Baylor is the likely team to advance but betting against UCSB might be more advantageous than trying to support Baylor on any of these bets.
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After spending time scouting college basketball for Florida State University under Leonard Hamilton and the University of Alabama under Anthony Grant, Michael started writing focused on NBA content. A graduate of both schools, he now covers legal sports betting bills, sports betting revenue data, tennis betting odds, and sportsbook reviews. Michael likes to play basketball, hike, and kayak when not glued to the TV watching midlevel tennis matches.