- Matt Olson (+490) is the only featured bat priced below his homer rate and has five homers in 40 at-bats against Aaron Nola.
- Kyle Schwarber (+270), Bryce Harper (+410) and Alec Bohm (+820) are each priced two to three points above their own homer rates.
- Harper hit .222 with four homers in 268 plate appearances against left-handers, and Atlanta is expected to open with a left-hander.
- Bohm, a right-handed hitter, batted .292 against left-handers and has a hit in 94 of 155 games, or 60.6 percent.
ATLANTA – Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm of the Philadelphia Phillies are each priced above their own 2026 home run rates for Thursday night’s winner-take-all Game 3 against the Atlanta Braves. Only Atlanta’s Matt Olson sits below his rate: he homered in 23.5 percent of games in 2026, and his +490 price implies 16.9 percent.
Four Home Run Prices Against Four Season Rates
The series is tied 1-1 after Atlanta’s 5-3 win in Game 1 and Philadelphia’s 4-3 win in 10 innings in Game 2. The home run prices on legal MLB betting sites stack up this way against how often each hitter went deep in the regular season.
Matt Olson HR
- Odds
- +490
- Implies
- 16.9%
- 2026 games with a homer
- 38 of 162 (23.5%)
Kyle Schwarber HR
- Odds
- +270
- Implies
- 27.0%
- 2026 games with a homer
- 38 of 156 (24.4%)
Bryce Harper HR
- Odds
- +410
- Implies
- 19.6%
- 2026 games with a homer
- 28 of 162 (17.3%)
Alec Bohm HR
- Odds
- +820
- Implies
- 10.9%
- 2026 games with a homer
- 14 of 155 (9.0%)
Olson’s 6.6-point gap in his favor is the only one in the table. The three Phillies bats carry prices two to three points richer than their own rates, which suggests legal sports betting markets are pricing them on the matchup rather than on 162 games of evidence. Schwarber, who tied for the major league lead with 45 homers and carries a 15.5 percent barrel rate according to Baseball Savant, is the shortest price because the power is real.
Atlanta’s Opener Is Built For Harper
Neither club had officially named a starter Thursday, but beat reporters expect Atlanta to open with a left-hander such as Ray Kerr or Brent Suter and give right-hander Grant Holmes the bulk of the innings. Left-handed hitters batted .174 against Kerr over 26 batters faced, a sample too small to settle anything.
The plan costs Harper more than Schwarber. Harper slugged .329 against left-handers and .585 against right-handers, while Schwarber has the opposite split, an .896 OPS against lefties and .834 against righties. Harper still reached two total bases in 69 of 162 games, or 42.6 percent, the rate any total bases line on him has to clear.
Holmes, 10-6 with a 3.44 ERA, allowed four homers in 20 2/3 innings across four outings against Philadelphia this season, including shots by Schwarber and Harper.
Bohm Draws The Lefty Matchup He Wants
Bohm is 3-for-8 in the series with a double in Game 1 and the 10th-inning homer in Game 2, good for a .375 average and 1.319 OPS. A lefty opener helps him, since he hit .292 with an .816 OPS against left-handers and .229 with a .644 OPS against right-handers. Baseball Savant’s expected batting average for him is .265, 16 points above his actual .249, so the contact has been better than the results.
His power is the limit, a 6 percent barrel rate that is average by Statcast standards, which makes the hit the sturdier market than the homer. He is also 0-for-10 in his career against Holmes.
Edmundo Sosa, who left Game 2 after a ninth-inning single with a right leg injury, said he hopes to be available, MLB.com reported. If he sits, the Phillies would move Harper to first base and Bohm to third, keeping both in the middle of the order.
Olson Gets Nola, Then Wheeler
Nola, the Phillies’ planned starter, allowed 37 homers, the most of any pitcher in the majors, a rate of 1.9 per nine innings against a league rate of 1.16. Left-handed hitters slugged .464 against him, and Olson has five homers and a .700 slugging percentage in 40 career at-bats against him. Olson’s 14.1 percent barrel rate and 52 percent hard-hit rate are both elite, according to Baseball Savant, and his expected stats match his results.
Zack Wheeler is the complication. He threw 97 pitches in Sunday’s regular-season finale, and Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly said it will be all hands on deck, with MLB.com reporting that both he and Nola are likely to pitch. Wheeler held left-handed hitters to a .389 slugging percentage, so Olson’s best looks come early, against Nola.
