- The Texans-Colts total has dropped from 45.5 to 42.5 since the line opened, with the under priced at -105.
- Colts receiver Alec Pierce is on injured reserve after his surgically repaired heel gave out against Kansas City.
- A hamstring strain has cost Texans receiver Nico Collins one full game and every practice this week.
- The spread opened at Texans -1.5 and still sits there, so the whole move landed on the total.
INDIANAPOLIS – The total for Sunday’s Texans-Colts game has fallen three points since it opened, from 45.5 to 42.5, after Indianapolis placed 1,000-yard receiver Alec Pierce on injured reserve Wednesday and a hamstring injury kept Houston’s Nico Collins off the practice field Wednesday and Thursday.
Two Receiver Rooms Down, One Number Reacting
Houston and Indianapolis are both 0-2, and each is missing a receiver its passing game relies on. Pierce hurt his heel in the first quarter of a 33-30 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 and was carted off. A March surgery had repaired that heel, and Pierce came off a 1,003-yard season. Colts coach Shane Steichen said Wednesday the medical staff had cleared Pierce before the game, and he’s expected to miss at least four games.
Collins strained his hamstring in practice ahead of Houston’s 20-6 Week 2 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and sat that game out. This week he hasn’t practiced, Wednesday or Thursday. Texans coach DeMeco Ryans offered nothing firm Monday. “We don’t have an update right now,” he said. The staff was “still seeing how he progresses with his rehab and his recovery.” Quarterback C.J. Stroud said Wednesday the offense would handle the absence better than it did in Week 2, but that “it’s tough not having him.”
A total built for two full receiving corps doesn’t hold once neither corps is full, and a three-point move inside one week of practice reports is a real swing, not noise off a light NFL news week.
The Spread Never Moved
Houston opened as a 1.5-point favorite this week and is still Texans -1.5 heading into Sunday. That’s the market treating the two losses as a wash: Houston’s drop-off without Collins offsets Indianapolis’s without Pierce, and neither side earned a point. Every bit of the week’s repricing went into the total instead.
What 42.5 And -1.5 Add Up To
A 42.5 total with Houston favored by 1.5 works out to an implied 22 points for the Texans and 20.5 for the Colts, modest numbers for two offenses that were already 0-2 before either lost its top target. The game number has moved in one direction since it opened, a trend legal sports betting bettors don’t see every week this early in a season. The under has been the right side of that move all week, and Thursday’s practice reports gave no reason to expect a reversal before kickoff at 1 p.m. Sunday.
