- The Buffalo Bills have -450 odds to beat the Detroit Lions.
- The Detroit Lions have -115 odds to cover a +10-point spread.
- The total points for the game is set at 54.
DETROIT – Thanksgiving Day is finally here and the Detroit Lions are hosting the Buffalo Bills where they are seen as 10-point underdogs at home. Although Buffalo has been on an absolute tear this season winning their games by an average of 10.7 points, there is reason to believe that the Lions could keep this game close and cover.
Buffalo Bills Vs. Detroit Lions
- Moneyline: Bills (-450) vs. Lions (+360)
- Spread: Bills -10 (-105)
- Total: 54 Points
Starting with where legal online betting sites are taking the most action, the point total is seeing 66% of the action on the over and the Lions are taking in 51% of total bets on the spread.
Fade The Public on The Over
Starting with the point total, this is an extremely high point total in a game that features a top-5 defense in the league in Buffalo. The Bills are allowing opponents to score 17.4 ppg this season while they are scoring 28.1 ppg. Combined that is just 45.5 ppg for the Bills this season which is 8.5 points under the total.
Also backing up the NFL odds on the under on Bovada are that both teams have been playing solid redzone defense. The Bills are letting their opponents score in the redzone on 45.16% of drives and 38.46% of the time in their last three games. As for Detroit, they have allowed a redzone score on 66.67% of redzone drives but have picked up steam in their last three games allowing 50% of redzone dives to end in a score.
On the trends side, Buffalo sits with a 7-3 record on the under this season missing the over mark by -3.8 points on average. The Bills have also faced point totals of 50+ points five times this season and are 4-1 with the under. Detroit, on the other hand, has gone 3-2 with the under in their last five games as an underdog of 9-11 points. Also, in Detroit’s last 10 Thanksgiving games, they have stayed under in seven of the ten games.
Lions An ATS Lock on Thanksgiving?
A 10-point favored spread is a hefty ask of any team and Buffalo will have tons of their hands against the Lions as Detroit has been one of the better teams against the spread this season. The Lions have a 6-4 ATS record at a +0.1 cover margin. While the Bills have a 5-4-1 ATS record and a +3.7 cover margin, they’ve slowed down tremendously in recent games. The Bills have gone 1-3 ATS in their last four games and are 1-2 ATS in games that have seen a 10-10.5 point spread in their favor thus far.
The Lions have turned things up with their play against the spread covering in each of their last three games. On Thanksgiving especially, the Lions have powered through ATS going 4-1 in their last 5 and 9-1 in their last 10 Thanksgiving games.
Unfortunately for the Bills, in the five games in history that they’ve been a 9-11 point favorite on the road, they have gone 1-4 ATS. In the Lions last four games as a 9-11 point underdog at home, they have gone 3-1 ATS. The Lions have also covered in three of the last four meetings with Buffalo overall dating back to 2002.
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Samuel has been writing professionally for 4 years. He comes from a sports writing background where he enjoys writing mostly about basketball and football both professional and collegiate. He is a recent graduate of Florida State University where he majored in Editing, Writing and Media with a minor in Communications. During his free time, you can find him watching or playing sports as well as playing videogames and listening to music.