UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley Odds and Best Bets

• Merab Dvalishvili is a -275 favorite to beat Sean O’Malley for a second time and retain his Bantamweight Title
• Sean O’Malley has not fought since losing the title to Dvalishvili in September of 2024

NEWARK, N.J. – UFC 316 on Saturday features a loaded card headlined by a rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley for the Bantamweight Title.

Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2 Odds

Player	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Merab Dvalishvili	-5.5 (+120)	-275	O 4.5 (-285)
Sean O’Malley	+5.5 (-155)	+225	U 4.5 (+210)

Legal sports betting sites list Dvalishvili as the favorite with -275 odds after beating O’Malley for the title at UFC 306 in September of 2024.

Dvalishvili has one successful title defense since then, beating Umar Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision at UFC 311 in January. O’Malley has yet to fight since losing the title.

Overall, the best value in this fight sits in the spread with Sean O’Malley at +5.5. The spread for UFC works with the judges’ scorecards and if the fight is won before a decision, the spread cashes in favor of the victorious fighter.

For example, in UFC 306 when Dvalishvili beat O’Malley, each judge ruled in favor of Dvalishvili by one, three, and one point respectively for a total of five points.

5.5 is quite a large spread and implies that at least two judges will rule that Dvalishvili won four of the five rounds, assuming the fight goes the distance which is implied by UFC betting sites due to the -285 odds to go over 4.5 rounds.

The reason that O’Malley gives good odds at -155 is because of his fighting style. Dvalishvili is a much better grappler, but O’Malley is one of the most lethal strikers in the UFC and can finish a fight at any moment.

Dvalishvili was completely dominant in their first bout, landing 214 of his 310 strikes as compared to O’Malley’s 49 landed strikes on 91 total strikes thrown. Dvalishvili also landed six of his 15 takedown attempts.

Despite this, O’Malley still lost on the scorecards by a total of just five points in one of the worst showings of his career.

Though he may not win outright, he certainly has a chance to do so, recording eight career finishes by knockout/TKO. As long as he puts up a better performance than their previous meeting, O’Malley stands to make bettors plenty of money this weekend.

News tags: Merab Dvalishvili | New Jersey | Newark | Sean O’Malley | UFC | UFC 316 | Umar Nurmagomedov