Why Ohio State Can Cover Hefty 9.5 Point Spread Over Miami

Written By:

Drew Gniadek

Published On:

December 31, 2025 1:05 PM

Why Ohio State Can Cover Hefty 9.5 Point Spread Over Miami
  • Ohio State is favored by 9.5 points after losing the Big Ten championship to Indiana.
  • Miami defeated Texas A&M in the first round of the playoff by a final score of 10-3.

ARLINGTON, Texas – The first game of the 2025 College Football Playoff quarterfinals kicks off Wednesday night as the Miami Hurricanes and the Ohio State Buckeyes play in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl.

Miami vs Ohio State Game Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami +9.5 (-105) +285 O 40.5 (-115)
Ohio State -9.5 (-115) -370 U 40.5 (-105)

Legal sports betting sites favor the Buckeyes by 9.5 points Wednesday night, the largest spread of any CFP quarterfinal game.

Miami is coming off of a 10-3 victory on the road against 7th ranked Texas A&M in a game where both teams struggled to get their offense going.

Ohio State has not played since their December 6th loss to Indiana in the Big Ten conference championship game.

Ohio State Buckeyes -9.5 (-115)

Despite a poor showing in their most recent outing, Ohio State has proven to be one of the most dominant teams in the country this season, going 12-1 while boasting the top defense in terms of both opponent yards per play and opponent points per play.

They also ranked 19th in yards per play offensively, while Miami ranked 27th in the country.

One of the biggest keys to the game will be Miami’s defense, and more specifically pass rush, against Ohio State’s offense, which features freshman quarterback Julian Sayin.

As previously mentioned, the Hurricanes held Texas A&M to just three points on their home field and racked up seven sacks during that game.

Ohio State has been amongst the best teams in the country in keeping their quarterback upright, allowing just 0.9 sacks per game, while Miami has averaged 2.8 sacks per game defensively.

Indiana was the only team to record more than two sacks against the Buckeyes, as well as the only team to hold them to less than 24 points since Week 1 against Texas.

Miami will be one of the more stout defenses that Ohio State has faced, but three weeks of preparation and 13 weeks of game film should help them to formulate a gameplan.

Miami’s Offensive Struggles

Conversely, Miami scored under 24 points for the first time all season against Texas A&M, whose defense is significantly worse than Ohio State.

Carson Beck was able to throw for just 103 yards and one touchdown while the ground game did most of the work, with Mark Fletcher totalling 172 rushing yards.

Ohio State ranks top five in both opponent yards per carry and opponent yards per pass attempt, while Texas A&M was outside the top 70 in opponent yards per carry and 15th in opponent yards per pass attempt.

Bettors can expect this to be a low scoring game, but Ohio State and their defense should be able to cover the 9.5 point spread at college football betting sites.

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Ben Fiore

Drew Gniadek

Drew is currently a student at Florida State University, originally from Massachusetts. He has a background playing basketball, including both for the high school varsity team and pool basketball with his friends. Drew is a die-hard Celtics fan and also enjoys football and baseball.