- The Houston Texans are a 2.5- to 3-point home favorite, priced from -147 to -150 on the moneyline, with the game total at 48.
- Dallas ranks third in the NFL in offensive EPA per play at 0.17, while Houston ranks 25th at minus-0.07.
- Dallas will be without safety Jalen Thompson for at least four weeks, and Malik Hooker is still recovering from a fractured forearm.
- Houston coach DeMeco Ryans is hopeful that receiver Nico Collins and guard Ed Ingram return after missing two games.
HOUSTON – The winless Houston Texans are 2.5- to 3-point home favorites over the Dallas Cowboys in Sunday’s matchup, making them the only one of the NFL’s five 0-3 teams priced as a favorite in Week 4. Houston’s three losses, to Buffalo, Cincinnati and Indianapolis, add up to a 21-point deficit, and this is the second year in a row the Texans have opened 0-3.
Dallas Holds The Efficiency Edge
Through three games, Dallas’s offense is producing 0.17 expected points added per play, third in the NFL and above the 0.05 to 0.15 range that marks a good offense. Houston’s is at minus-0.07, 25th, and its passing game sits at minus-0.01 per pass play against 0.34 for Dallas, second in the league.
The Cowboys’ problem is the other side of the ball. Their defense has allowed 0.13 EPA per play, and only the Miami Dolphins have allowed more. Their pass defense has surrendered 0.41 per pass play, again second-worst in the league.
Houston’s defense is below average too, at 0.05 allowed per play, 22nd, and its run game is 26th at minus-0.23 EPA per rush. Three games is a small sample for EPA, which needs four to six to settle, but the gap between the two passing games is wide enough to matter.
Only One Winless Team Is Favored
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also 0-3, also at home and also hosting a 1-2 team, yet they are 3.5- to 4-point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers. The Week 4 NFL betting board is pricing rosters and matchups, not records, and Houston is the only winless team it backs.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
- Spread
- Texans -2.5 to -3
- Moneyline odds
- Texans -147 to -150, Cowboys +127 to +130
- Total
- 48
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
- Spread
- Ravens -11.5
- Moneyline odds
- Ravens -650, Titans +450 to +476
- Total
- 43.5
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
- Spread
- Vikings -11
- Moneyline odds
- Vikings -585 to -610, Dolphins +410 to +452
- Total
- 38.5 to 39
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread
- Packers -3.5 to -4
- Moneyline odds
- Packers -190 to -195, Buccaneers +165
- Total
- 39.5
The Titans and Dolphins, also 0-3, are double-digit underdogs on the road, and the Los Angeles Chargers, the fifth winless team, are underdogs at Seattle.
What The Number Is Betting On
The Texans’ price leans on health. Thompson will miss at least four weeks with a hamstring injury and is likely to join P.J. Locke on injured reserve, the Dallas Cowboys said this week. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer said Malik Hooker, out since Week 1 with a fractured forearm, may need more time. The safety group has thinned since Week 1, and it now faces a Houston passing game that ranks 21st in EPA per pass play.
Houston hopes to get starters back of its own. Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said Monday he is hopeful that receiver Nico Collins, sidelined by a hamstring injury, and right guard Ed Ingram, out with a groin injury, return this week. Houston lost both games without them. The Texans know the hole: last season’s team also opened 0-3, then won 12 of its final 14 regular-season games.
Backing Houston has not paid in the last two weeks. The Texans were favored at kickoff in both of their last two games, by 2.5 to 3 points over Cincinnati and by 1 to 1.5 at Indianapolis, and lost both outright, 20-6 and 19-17.
Seven Points From Each Offense’s Average
At a 3-point spread and a 48-point total, the numbers work out to roughly 25 points for Houston and 23 for Dallas. Houston has averaged 18 points through three games and Dallas 29, so the price asks each offense to move about seven points from where it has been. Laying the points is a bet that Collins and Ingram fix an offense that has been outscored by seven points a game.
Taking Dallas is a bet that its offense keeps scoring near 29 against a Houston defense that has allowed 25 a game. The number is split across the legal sports betting market, at 2.5 in some places and 3 in others.
A three-point Houston win cashes at 2.5 and pushes at 3. Backing Houston on the moneyline needs a win rate near 60 percent to break even, a steep hurdle for a team with a minus-7 average margin.
Final injury designations arrive Friday, and kickoff is 1 p.m. Eastern Sunday on Fox at NRG Stadium, where a loss would give Houston its first 0-4 start since 2020.
