- Iga Swiatek has -225 odds to win the women’s singles championship at Wimbledon.
- The last four winners of the women’s singles championship at Wimbledon held a higher service game win rate, which Swiatek has over Anisimova.
LONDON – The women’s singles final match at Wimbledon is scheduled for Saturday, July 12th at 9:20 AM EST as Amanda Anisimova and Iga Swiatek meet for the first time in each of their careers.
Anisimova vs Swiatek Match Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Anisimova | +3.5 (-110) | +185 | O 21.5 (-115) |
| Iga Swiatek | -3.5 (-120) | -225 | U 21.5 (-115) |
Legal sports betting sites have Iga Swiatek listed as a -225 favorite, tied for the second shortest odds entering the final match at Wimbledon in the last six years.
Three of the last five winners of the women’s singles at Wimbledon entered the final match as underdogs, a trend Swiatek looks to uproot.
Here are a few key stats that play to Swiatek’s advantage.
Service Games
Service games have had a significant role in the outcome of Wimbledon matches throughout the tournament’s history due to the grass surface. The last four women’s singles champions have had a higher service game win rate than their opponent in the final match.
This year, Iga Swiatek has posted a 75.7% service game win rate overall and it has skyrocketed to 89% in her matches at Wimbledon.
Amanda Anisimova’s service game win rate this year is 69.3% and she has also seen a significant jump at Wimbledon, recording an 82% service game win rate during the tournament.
Though there are plenty of other factors that will impact the match, a 5%+ difference in service game win rate could drastically boost the chances of Swiatek.
Historic Trends
Of the last five women’s singles champions at Wimbledon, four of them hit a specific threshold; either a 78% or better service game win rate and/or a 40% or better return game win rate within that calendar year.
The only exception was last year’s champion, Barbara Krejcikova, who won just 68.5% of her service games and 33.3% of her return games.
This year, one of the two finalists meets one of these thresholds. Iga Swiatek has recorded a 44.1% return game win rate while narrowly missing the 78% service game win rate at 75.7% for the year.
Amanda Anisimova has a service game win rate of 69.3% and a return game win rate of 39.7%, just narrowly missing the threshold, though she could look to last year’s champion as proof that it is not the end-all be-all.
Bettors should feel confident in Swiatek to win her first title at Wimbledon this weekend. Pick her to win outright with -225 odds at Wimbledon betting sites.
