- Brazil is the World Cup favorite right now, with legal sportsbooks suggesting they will dominate Croatia in the Quarterfinals.
- Expected goal-scoring statistics also like Brazil to win big over Croatia, with bets on Brazil to cover the spread as the best bet of the game.
DOHA, Qatar – Bovada has made Brazil a heavy favorite over Croatia in the quarterfinals of the FIFA World Cup, with the Luka Modric-led Croatian team given longer odds to win in regulation than for the game to head to extra time.
Croatia vs Brazil World Cup Odds
|Croatia||+1, +1.5 (+102)||+700||O2.5, 3 (-102)|
|Brazil||-1, -1.5 (-122)||-275||U2.5, 3 (-118)|
Betting on Brazil to Advance
Brazil is nearing outright favorite status to take home the FIFA World Cup, with legal soccer sportsbooks giving them +170 odds to win the tournament.
A draw at fulltime comes with +400 odds
Bovada’s odds on Brazil’s stage of elimination make it clear that not only should players be betting on Brazil to beat Croatia, but it is more likely that they win the tournament than lose in any specific round.
Stage of Elimination Odds – Brazil
- Winners +170
- Semi Final +225
- Runner-Up +300
- Quarter Final +400
Comparing Brazil’s elimination odds to Croatia’s suggests that this match may not be close.
Stage of Elimination Odds – Croatia
- Quarter Finals -600
- Semi Final +550
- Runner-Up +2000
- Winners +4000
Expected goal scoring statistics agree with the notion that Brazil should be heavily favored.
With eight teams remaining and with goals scored and allowed averaged out over 90 minutes, the differences between Brazil and Croatia are extreme:
- Brazil: Expected Goals Scored: 2.36 (1st), Expected Goals Allowed: 0.35 (2nd), Expected Goal Differential: 2.01 (1st)
- Croatia: Expected Goals Scored: 1.2 (6th), Expected Goals Allowed: 1.16 (7th), Expected Goal Differential: 0.04 (6th)
Those projections suggest that Brazil would typically win this game by about two goals, meaning that they will likely easily cover the spread at legal sportsbooks.
Are you trailing or fading bets on Brazil to dominate versus Croatia?
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Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.