- There is a 1.5-round total set between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira.
- Kai Kara-France has +210 odds to beat Alexandre Pantoja.
LAS VEGAS – A big-time card is set for UFC 317 with two title fights featured in the main and co-main events. Alexandre Pantoja defends his flyweight title as the favorite over Kai Kara-France, while Ilia Topuria puts his lightweight strap on the line against Charles Oliveira in the main event.
We’re eyeing two value plays at legal sports betting sites — the round total in the main event and a live dog in the co-main event.
Too Low Of A Round Total Between Topuria, Oliveira
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira – Round Total
- Over 1.5 -145
- Under 1.5 +110
The 1.5-round total in the main event looks extremely low considering the fighting styles and recent form of both fighters. The UFC betting sites offering -145 on the over provide tremendous value.
Ilia Topuria has gone over 1.5 rounds in each of his last five bouts, showcasing more patience in his fighting style. On the other side, Charles Oliveira has gone over that same total in three of his last four contests — including three of four title fights that went past the 1.5-round mark.
Given their durability and the magnitude of the fight, the over looks like the sharp side here.
Great Value On KKF Over Pantoja
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France
- Pantoja -250
- Kara-France +210
The value is clearly on Kai Kara-France in the co-main event. Statistically, KKF matches up well and arguably better than Pantoja in multiple categories — especially when considering this fight may come down to takedown success or failure.
KKF boasts an 88% takedown defense rate, which will be crucial against Pantoja’s 2.74 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and 47% takedown accuracy.
If Kara-France can keep the fight standing, the numbers lean in his favor:
- 4.56 significant strikes landed per minute
- 3.22 significant strikes absorbed per minute
- 65% significant strike defense
With these striking advantages and top-tier takedown defense, KKF at +210 is a live underdog worth backing.
