- Betting projections for Super Bowl LX vary between $1.5 billion and $1.71 billion across legal US sportsbooks.
- This year’s matchup lacks star appeal while prediction markets create new competition for traditional operators.
- Super Bowl Sunday remains America’s largest single-day betting event regardless of whether handle rises or falls.
SANTA CLARA, Calif. – Super Bowl LX is set to generate massive betting activity across the United States, though analysts can’t seem to agree on exactly how much money will be wagered on the big game between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots on February 8.
According to legal sports betting reports, wagers in 41 states and territories would total about $1.71 billion, up 10.3% from the previous year. This would maintain an eight-year run of Super Bowl betting handle records. The forecast takes into consideration Missouri’s recent entry into the sports betting industry and expects big markets like New Jersey ($161 million) and New York ($171 million) to do well.
Jordan Bender, an analyst with Citizens Equity Research, provides a more cautious estimate of $1.5 billion, which would actually be a 2% decrease from the prior year. Bender notes that last year’s exceptionally high hold percentage of 17% made it challenging for operators to make year-over-year comparisons.
Why the Different Projections?
Beyond methodology, there are several reasons for the disparate projections. This year’s matchup itself, which has the same allure as other championship games, is a major source of concern. Super Bowl sportsbooks may see fewer recreational bettors participating in the action if big names like Patrick Mahomes or cultural phenomena like last year’s Taylor Swift storyline aren’t garnering widespread attention.
Furthermore, unprecedented competition is being created by prediction markets like Kalshi and Robinhood. Last year, these platforms brought in $27 million for the Super Bowl, but this year’s total is already close to $150 million. Traditional NFL betting sites may be greatly impacted by this change.
The usual host-state spike that prior Super Bowls saw is eliminated by the game’s location in California, where sports betting is still unregulated. Nevada’s handle is expected to be $144 million, continuing a declining trend as fewer travelers go to Vegas.
Despite the uncertainty, Super Bowl Sunday will remain the largest betting day in American sports. The game accounts for about 1% of the amount of money bet on sports in the US annually, which is equivalent to three normal days’ worth of betting activity combined into one event. Regardless of slight handle gains or declines, operators are focused on acquiring new customers and converting them into loyal users across all of their platforms.
