- The best way to bet on the Kentucky Derby is via fixed odds, not traditional pari-mutuel odds.
- Favorites are likely to see their odds shorten as it gets close to race day, which means now is the time to bet on them with fixed odds to secure larger payouts.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The best bet for the 2026 Kentucky Derby is on fixed odds, not pari-mutuel odds. That’s especially true when betting on favorites, whether it be Renegade, Commandment, or Further Ado.
Fixed odds at legal Kentucky Derby betting sites are more valuable than pari-mutuel odds for bettors because of the certainty that comes with them.
For those who don’t know, here is a quick refresher on the differences between fixed and pari-mutuel odds:
- Fixed odds: These are standard odds at legal sports betting sites. Odds are set at a number, and once a bet is placed, the odds for that specific bet can’t change. People who bet fixed odds are betting against the house (i.e., the sportsbook). For example, a $100 bet on Renegade to win at +450 pays out $450 if Renegade wins, no matter how anyone else bets.
- Pari-Mutuel odds: These odds are estimates. Essentially, bettors are buying a stake of the overall betting pool if their bet is correct. That means bettors are betting against other bettors instead of the house. A simplified example would be if someone bet $10 on The Puma, who’s currently listed at 10-1. If there were $100 total in the pool, that $10 bet would pay just less than $100 (would have been $100, but the house takes a cut). But if someone else bet $100 on The Puma to win, then the $10 bettor would have to split the new $200 pot with the $100 bettor. The $10 bettor would see their win drop down to less than $18 after the house takes a cut.
What those two examples show is that smaller bettors can be negatively affected by larger bettors because their large bets greatly dilute the odds.
Tuesday’s article by Dan Wolken at Yahoo Sports referenced how large syndicates have been using different probability models to predict winners of various horse races across the country and then wiring in their bets at the last minute. Those bets, which are often very large, greatly change payouts for smaller bettors.
To secure fair payouts and avoid getting reduced payouts because of late action from large gamblers, bettors are best off betting on fixed odds for the Kentucky Derby.
That’s even more true for this year than in past Kentucky Derbies because the favorites right now still have relatively long odds. With those relatively long odds, it would not be a surprise if large bets on them start to shorten the pari-mutuel odds for the favorites.
Consider the odds for some of the favorites at recent Kentucky Derbies.
| Year | Favorite | 2nd Favorite | 3rd Favorite | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Renegade (+450) | Commandment (+500) | Further Ado (+550) | TBD |
| 2025 | Journalism (+300) | Sovereignty (+550) | Sandman (+600) | Sovereignty (+550) |
| 2024 | Fierceness (+250) | Sierra Leone (+425) | Forever Young (+850) | Mystik Dan (+2000) |
| 2023 | Forte (+300) | Tapit Trice (+500) | Angel of Empire (+800) | Mage (+1200) |
| 2022 | Zandon (+300) | Epicenter (+350) | Messier (+800) | Rich Strike (+8000) |
Those odds at legal horse race betting sites show that favorites often end up having odds in the +300 range. No horse currently has fixed odds that are shorter than +450 (Renegade). Based on past betting trends, it is likely that favorites like Renegade or Commandment will see their odds shorten as it gets closer to race time.
Now is the time to bet on their fixed odds, so that you don’t see your winnings decrease as more and more money comes in on the Kentucky Derby favorites.
