- Shelton fell 6-4, 6-4 to No. 79 Jaime Faria in Cincinnati’s second round on Sunday night.
- Eight of the 11 US Open champions since 2014 who played Cincinnati reached at least the quarterfinals.
- Only Dominic Thiem in 2020 matched a second-round Cincinnati exit, the year the event moved to New York.
- Shelton is +1600 to win the US Open, fifth on the board behind Sinner, Alcaraz, Zverev and Djokovic.
CINCINNATI – Ben Shelton, ranked No. 6 in the world, lost his opening match at the Cincinnati Open 6-4, 6-4 to Portuguese qualifier Jaime Faria on Sunday night, three days after winning the Masters 1000 title in Montreal. One US Open champion in the past 12 years went out of Cincinnati that early and still won the Slam: Dominic Thiem in 2020, the year the tournament was played on the US Open’s own courts.
Faria Buried The Chances Shelton Left Him
Faria, No. 79 in the ATP rankings and into the draw through qualifying, broke Shelton in his second return game and held out the rest of the first set. Shelton manufactured pressure all evening and could not cash it, converting 1 of 12 break points in the first top-10 win of Faria’s career. Faria also trailed 1-4 in the second set and won five straight games from there.
“It’s a very emotional moment for me and my team, and to do it here in front of an amazing crowd and against the home player at night and at an amazing venue just makes it a little more special,” Faria said.
The loss ended a six-match winning streak that had delivered Shelton his second Masters 1000 title on Thursday, all of it in a successful title defense in Canada. He is the highest-ranked American man in the field and the shortest-priced American on legal online sports betting boards for the US Open.
What Cincinnati Has Actually Said About US Open Champions
Cincinnati is the last full-field hard-court read before Flushing Meadows, which is why the week gets mined for signal. Of the past 12 US Open champions, 11 played Cincinnati that year. Rafael Nadal withdrew in 2019.
| Year | US Open champion | Cincinnati that year |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Marin Cilic | Third round |
| 2015 | Novak Djokovic | Final |
| 2016 | Stan Wawrinka | Third round |
| 2017 | Rafael Nadal | Quarterfinals |
| 2018 | Novak Djokovic | Champion |
| 2019 | Rafael Nadal | Withdrew |
| 2020 | Dominic Thiem | Second round |
| 2021 | Daniil Medvedev | Semifinals |
| 2022 | Carlos Alcaraz | Quarterfinals |
| 2023 | Novak Djokovic | Champion |
| 2024 | Jannik Sinner | Champion |
| 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | Champion |
Eight of those 11 reached at least the Cincinnati quarterfinals and four won the title outright. Three did not. Marin Cilic went out in the third round in 2014 and won the US Open the following month; Stan Wawrinka did the same in 2016. Thiem lost his opener in 2020.
The Thiem Precedent Comes With An Enormous Asterisk
Thiem is the only champion in the stretch to match what Shelton just did, and the year does not travel. Organizers moved the 2020 Cincinnati event out of Ohio to the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center and staged it back to back with the US Open on the same courts, the most abnormal setup in the tournament’s modern history.
Thiem lost 6-2, 6-1 to Filip Krajinovic in his first tour-level match after a five-month shutdown, then won the Slam that began two days after Cincinnati ended. Shelton’s exit is the closest comparison on the board, and that comparison is a season nobody else has ever played.
A Lean, Not A Law
History does not rule anyone in or out, and one Cincinnati result does not settle what Shelton’s true US Open chance is. It does change what a book is willing to pay on him. Mispricing a Slam field is not a new problem either, as how sportsbooks failed their men’s French Open odds pricing laid out in June.
The reason the filter is weak is structural. A Masters 1000 is best of three, where one bad service game decides a set. A Slam is best of five, which gives the better player four more chances to correct. Shelton lost a match in the format that punishes a flat hour, three days after lifting a trophy in the same format.
Where Shelton’s US Open Price Sits Now
Shelton is +1600 to win the US Open. Jannik Sinner leads the board at -165, followed by Carlos Alcaraz at +225, Alexander Zverev at +800 and Novak Djokovic at +1200.
A +1600 price implies roughly 5.9%. Whether Shelton’s real chance is better or worse than that number is the entire bet, and one flat night in a best-of-three does not settle it either way. Legal US Open betting markets will move again once the draw comes out.
The 2026 US Open main draw begins Aug. 30 at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, with the men’s final on Sept. 13. Faria plays Adam Walton in the Cincinnati third round.
