- Paul is -165 and Cobolli +135 at Bovada, with the total set at 24.5 games.
- Neither man has won a match in straight sets in Cincinnati, and all six wins went three.
- Those six wins produced 32, 28, 33, 26, 34 and 32 games, all above the 24.5-game total.
- Cobolli, ranked No. 10, beat Paul in their only prior meeting, at Cincinnati in 2024.
CINCINNATI – Tommy Paul is a -165 favorite at Bovada over Flavio Cobolli in a Cincinnati Open quarterfinal scheduled for no earlier than 3 p.m. Thursday on Stadium Court, the first of two men’s quarterfinals on the day’s card.
The Paul Vs. Cobolli Odds And The 24.5-Game Total
Paul at -165 pays about 61 cents on the dollar, a price that implies roughly 62%. Whether his real chance of beating Cobolli is better or worse than that number is the bet. Cobolli at +135 implies about 43%, and the two figures together leave the book a margin of a little under 5%.
| Thursday’s first quarterfinal | Bovada price |
|---|---|
| Tommy Paul | -165 |
| Flavio Cobolli | +135 |
| Over 24.5 games | -115 |
| Under 24.5 games | -115 |
Both sides of the total sit at -115, a price that has to land 53.5% of the time just to break even. Cincinnati is the last ATP Masters 1000 stop before the US Open, which keeps it at the center of legal tennis betting through Sunday’s final.
Six Wins, Six Third Sets
Neither player has finished a match in two sets this week. Paul opened with a bye, then beat Hubert Hurkacz 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3 and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.
He knocked out top seed Alexander Zverev 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-4 on Wednesday in a match interrupted by a rain shower of nearly 90 minutes and stopped twice more after that. Paul saved a match point at 5-6 in the second-set tiebreaker, then won four straight games from 2-4 down in the third. He took 47% of the points he played against Zverev’s second serve, and the match lasted two hours, 51 minutes.
“I guess just put some returns in,” Paul said of the turnaround, in his on-court remarks after the win. “He gave me a couple of looks at second serves and a couple of doubles there, that helped me out a ton.”
Cobolli’s three wins followed the same shape: 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 over Miomir Kecmanovic, 7-5, 4-6, 7-5 over Alexander Blockx and 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-3 over 12th seed Rafael Jodar. He struck 42 unforced errors across the first two sets against Jodar, a match that ran two hours, 30 minutes on Wednesday.
“I just [told] myself to believe, to fight in every point, and I knew I would get a chance,” Cobolli said after reaching the last eight.
Six matches, six third sets, six game counts of 26 or higher. The shortest was Cobolli’s 26-game opener, and the six average just under 31 games. Their only previous meeting went the distance as well, Cobolli winning 6-2, 4-6, 7-5 at this tournament in 2024, when Paul was seeded 10th.
Cobolli At No. 10, Paul At No. 24
Cobolli is the seventh seed and the higher-ranked player at No. 10, up to fourth in the ATP Live Race To Turin and chasing a first appearance at the Nitto ATP Finals. His 2026 includes a Roland Garros final, which he lost to Zverev, a title in Acapulco and a Wimbledon quarterfinal. This is his second Masters 1000 quarterfinal and his first on a hard court.
Paul, the 18th seed and No. 24 in the rankings, is into his 50th tour-level quarterfinal and his first at this event. He now leads Zverev 3-1 head-to-head.
Fils Or Tirante Waits
The winner meets Arthur Fils or Thiago Agustin Tirante, who play Thursday’s second men’s quarterfinal no earlier than 8:30 p.m. Fils, the 21st seed, is a -375 favorite over the unseeded Tirante at +290. Fils beat No. 8 Alex de Minaur 6-3, 6-4 on Wednesday; Tirante upset Novak Djokovic in the second round and beat 14th seed Jakub Mensik 5-7, 6-4, 6-4.
The bottom half’s quarterfinals, Taylor Fritz against Brandon Nakashima and Lorenzo Musetti against Frances Tiafoe, are scheduled for Friday. Semifinals are Saturday and the final is Sunday, Aug. 23. From there legal sports betting boards move to the US Open, whose main draw starts Aug. 30 at Flushing Meadows.
