- Aryna Sabalenka (-185) faces Jessica Pegula in Thursday’s U.S. Open semifinal, their third straight meeting at the event.
- Pegula won their most recent meeting, in June in Berlin, but Sabalenka leads the all-time series 9-4.
- Sabalenka beat Pegula for the 2024 title here and again in last September’s semifinal.
- Wednesday’s Rybakina-Zheng and Gauff-Andreeva quarterfinals decide the other semifinal, with Sabalenka’s No. 1 ranking riding on the Rybakina result.
NEW YORK – Aryna Sabalenka (-3.0) will play Jessica Pegula in Thursday’s U.S. Open semifinal after both won three-set quarterfinals Tuesday, the third consecutive year the two have met at the tournament.
Sabalenka Escapes In Three Sets
Sabalenka beat Linda Noskova 7-6 (7-1), 3-6, 7-6 (10-7) in a quarterfinal that cost her a set for the first time this tournament and ran her streak of tiebreaks won at the U.S. Open to 10. She trailed 4-2 in the deciding set after Noskova broke her, leveled at 4-4, and closed out the breaker on a second-serve ace.
“Thinking the match is over is probably what helped me to feel loose, go for my shots. I am super happy to get this win – a tough match,” Sabalenka said after the match.
The top seed is into her sixth straight U.S. Open semifinal and has never lost a quarterfinal in New York, and two more wins would give her a third consecutive New York title, something no woman has managed since Serena Williams closed out her 2012-14 run. Sabalenka opened the tournament as the favorite to three-peat when the draw was set in August, and nothing in her four rounds since has argued against that read.
Pegula’s Deciding-Set Habit Continues
Pegula beat Emma Navarro 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 in Tuesday’s all-American matchup, and the swing came late. Navarro broke for a 2-1 lead in the third set, then dropped the next four games. It was the second time this tournament she came back from a set down, after doing the same against Leylah Fernandez in the third round.
“To me, I think it’s fun to look at the rivalry we’ve had. She’s gotten me here the last couple of years. I have been able to beat her a few times, maybe on a smaller stage, so I think that’s going to be kind of a hurdle for me to get over,” Pegula said of facing Sabalenka again.
Pegula, 32, has a tour-high 19 three-set wins this season, and this is the first year of her career with two major semifinals, after she reached the Australian Open final four in January. She has +155 odds to pull off the upset and stop a Sabalenka US Open three-peat.
The Rivalry
Sabalenka leads the all-time series 9-4, and both prior U.S. Open meetings went her way, a straight-sets final in 2024 and then a semifinal a year ago that she took after losing the opening set. Pegula’s answer came in Berlin this June, their most recent meeting.
That is the whole argument on any legal sports betting board Thursday. The tournament history is the case for Sabalenka, and Berlin is the freshest evidence against it.
Wednesday Sets The Other Half
The second women’s semifinal is still open. No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina, this year’s Australian Open champion, plays qualifier Zheng Qinwen at 11:30 a.m. Wednesday, and No. 4 Coco Gauff plays No. 5 Mirra Andreeva no earlier than 12:30 p.m., a matchup Gauff has won all five times they have met.
Zheng, one of only four women in the Open era to come through qualifying and make the quarterfinals here, beat Iga Swiatek after trailing 0-5 in the first set. Sabalenka enters Thursday as the tour’s No. 1, but a Rybakina win Wednesday would move her off the top spot regardless of how she fares against Pegula.
The legal US Open betting market won’t carry a full women’s semifinal card until Wednesday’s two quarterfinals are decided.
