- Buffalo shortened to -250 for the AFC East and +350 for the AFC Championship after beating Detroit 41-31.
- San Francisco moved to +600 for the NFC Championship after beating Miami 35-13 to improve to 2-0.
- Baltimore’s AFC Championship price shortened to +450 despite a fourth-quarter collapse in a 24-17 home loss to New Orleans.
- New England’s AFC East price lengthened to +275 even after a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh.
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. – Buffalo shortened to -250 to win the AFC East and +350 for the AFC Championship at Bovada, and San Francisco jumped to +600 for the NFC Championship, after both teams stayed unbeaten through two weeks. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s conference price shortened despite a fourth-quarter collapse at home against New Orleans and the Patriots’ odds to win the AFC East got longer.
Buffalo’s Two Wins Pull Away From The Pack
Buffalo is 2-0 and alone atop the AFC East after Thursday’s new-stadium opener, a 41-31 win over Detroit in which the Bills covered and the total sailed over, outgaining the Lions 446 yards to 355. The Bills carry a 0.30 EPA per play on offense through two games with a 52.8% success rate, elite marks that back up the scoreboard rather than boom-and-bust variance.
The defense has allowed 0.15 EPA per play, among the worst marks in the league so far and the one obvious hole in an otherwise perfect start. Buffalo shortened from -190 to -250 to win the AFC East and from +400 to +350 for the AFC Championship, moves that price the division as close to settled as a two-team race gets in September and leave the conference number as the only Bills futures price on legal NFL betting boards still paying better than 3-1.
New England’s Defense Won The Game, Not The Market
New England beat Pittsburgh 20-3 on two strip-sacks of Aaron Rodgers, one returned for a touchdown, while Drake Maye’s offense produced four plays of 20-plus yards and little else. Rodgers finished 187 yards passing with no touchdowns and an interception, his fifth straight start with one or fewer passing touchdowns.
New England’s defense carries a -0.16 EPA per play allowed, the best mark of the four teams that moved this week’s board, but its offense sits at -0.05, below zero, the line between an average unit and a below-average one.
At 1-1 after an earlier loss, New England lengthened from +210 to +275 to win the AFC East even after Sunday’s win, and its AFC Championship price wasn’t among the week’s movers. A defense that can shut teams down still needs an offense that travels before the market treats New England as a threat to the division Buffalo just pulled away with.
The five prices that moved most after Sunday’s slate, all via Bovada, are below.
NFC Championship
- Team
- San Francisco 49ers
- Previous
- +750
- Odds
- +600
- Implies
- 14.3%
AFC East
- Team
- Buffalo Bills
- Previous
- -190
- Odds
- -250
- Implies
- 71.4%
AFC East
- Team
- New England Patriots
- Previous
- +210
- Odds
- +275
- Implies
- 26.7%
AFC Championship
- Team
- Buffalo Bills
- Previous
- +400
- Odds
- +350
- Implies
- 22.2%
AFC Championship
- Team
- Baltimore Ravens
- Previous
- +525
- Odds
- +450
- Implies
- 18.2%
San Francisco Backs Up Its Price
San Francisco is also 2-0 and has outscored its first two opponents 62-20 after a 35-13 win over Miami in which Brock Purdy completed 20 of 22 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns, Christian McCaffrey became the third player in NFL history with 50-plus scrimmage touchdowns for multiple teams, and George Kittle caught his 600th career pass.
The 49ers carry a 0.22 EPA per play on offense and a -0.12 mark allowed on defense, both among the best in the league through two weeks, the two-way efficiency that shortened San Francisco to +600 for the NFC Championship, tied with Seattle as the board’s second choice behind the Rams.
Sunday was the clearest two-way performance yet from a team whose price on legal sports betting boards has now moved twice in a week, from +1100 to +750 after Week 1 and to +600 after Sunday.
A Competitive Loss Cost Baltimore Almost Nothing
Baltimore led New Orleans 14-6 at halftime on a Derrick Henry touchdown run and a touchdown catch by Rashod Bateman, then let it slip away. The Saints scored 15 fourth-quarter points, including Tyler Shough’s fourth-down touchdown run, to turn a 17-9 deficit into a 24-17 win, and safety Julian Blackmon’s interception of Lamar Jackson sealed it, per NFL.com’s recap.
Baltimore gave Henry only five carries in the second half after leaning on him early, and did it all without Zay Flowers, who caught five passes for 150 yards in Week 1 and sat out with a hamstring injury.
Baltimore’s efficiency numbers held up regardless, a 0.10 EPA per play on offense and a 53.5% success rate, both comfortably above average, and its AFC Championship price shortened from +525 to +450 anyway. The board treated a competitive home loss without a top receiver as a far smaller data point than the final score alone would suggest.
