- The Las Vegas Aces are -170 and a 4-point home favorite over the Indiana Fever in Thursday’s Game 3.
- Caitlin Clark’s 27 points and 15 assists carried Indiana past Las Vegas 99-89 Tuesday and set up the decider.
- The home team won Game 1 by 17 and Game 2 by 10, and Las Vegas is laying just 4.
- The Aces are +300 to win the WNBA title, level with Atlanta and New York, while the Fever are +900.
LAS VEGAS – The Las Vegas Aces are -170 on the moneyline against the Indiana Fever for Thursday’s Game 3. The decider that puts their +300 championship price on the line after Indiana evened the opening-round series 1-1 with a 99-89 win Tuesday.
Indiana Won On Volume, Not Accuracy
No WNBA player had paired 25 points with 15 assists in one game, regular season or playoffs, until Caitlin Clark’s 27 and 15 on Tuesday. Kelsey Mitchell added 26 and Aliyah Boston 22 as the Fever shot 52% (37-of-71) to the Aces’ 42% (25-of-59).
The accuracy gap overstates the difference. Indiana finished at a .607 true shooting and Las Vegas at .602, because the Aces went to the line 34 times and made 30, including 13-of-13 from Jackie Young, who scored 31. The 10-point margin came from shot volume, 71 attempts to 59, and A’ja Wilson’s shot count is the lever Las Vegas can pull back. She took 11 shots in Game 2 after taking 19 in her 38-point Game 1.
Home Teams Have Won By Double Digits
The road team has lost by 17 and by 10, and the home side has shot 59% and 52% from the field against 45% and 42% for the visitor. That is two games, too small a sample to price a spread off, yet Las Vegas is laying only 4. Indiana was a 1.5-point home favorite Tuesday, so the number has swung 5.5 points between Game 2 and Game 3 as the series changes buildings.
A Las Vegas spread ticket in legal sports betting markets needs a win by five or more, a margin both home teams have cleared so far.
Las Vegas Aces
- Moneyline
- -170
- Spread
- -4 (-115)
- Total
- Over 181 (-110)
Indiana Fever
- Moneyline
- +145
- Spread
- +4 (-105)
- Total
- Under 181 (-110)
The total of 181 is 2.5 points below Tuesday’s 183.5, which the game cleared by 4.5 at 188, and it sits below the 187 points Sunday produced. Both games cleared it, so the Under is a bet that an elimination game slows down a series that has not slowed yet.
A Game 3 Loss Ends A +300 Ticket
Las Vegas held at +300 through the Game 2 loss, level with Atlanta and New York and a shade behind Golden State’s +290, while Indiana’s win cut the Fever’s title price to +900 from the +1600 it carried into Tuesday’s WNBA doubleheader. The New York Liberty, the 8-seed that eliminated top-seeded Minnesota in two games, sit at +300 as well.
| Team | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Golden State Valkyries | +290 | 25.6% |
| Atlanta Dream | +300 | 25.0% |
| Las Vegas Aces | +300 | 25.0% |
| New York Liberty | +300 | 25.0% |
| Indiana Fever | +900 | 10.0% |
Read against the Game 3 moneyline, the WNBA betting futures put a number on Thursday. The Aces’ -170 is a 63% break-even and their +300 title price a 25% one, so the market prices Las Vegas at roughly 40% to win the title once it clears Indiana (25 divided by 63). The Fever’s +145 is a 41% break-even and their +900 a 10% one, which prices Indiana at about 24% to win it all if it advances.
