- AL Pennant odds favor the Tampa Bay Rays at -180 odds, shortened from -105 after sweeping the Yankees in three games.
- The Guardians shortened from +1100 to +330 and the White Sox lengthened from +170 to +500 after Cleveland won twice in Chicago.
- Game 5 is Saturday at 8 p.m. ET at Progressive Field, and the winner opens the ALCS Monday at Tropicana Field.
- Home teams are 0-4 in the Guardians-White Sox series, so Cleveland hosts Game 5 without a home win to its name.
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – The Tampa Bay Rays are a -180 favorite in the AL pennant odds, shortened from -105, after a three-game sweep of the New York Yankees, and their opponent comes out of a deciding Game 5 on Saturday, Oct. 10, that sends either the Cleveland Guardians or the Chicago White Sox to St. Petersburg.
Rays Swept The Yankees In Three Games
The Rays beat the Yankees 4-3 at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday, Oct. 7, when Victor Mesa Jr. hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the sixth inning. It was Tampa Bay’s first best-of-five sweep in franchise history, and it took the Yankees off the pennant board.
At -180, a pennant ticket at legal MLB betting sites risks $180 to win $100 and breaks even only if Tampa Bay wins the pennant 64.3% of the time. The Rays’ 98 wins came with a +86 run differential, far short of the 138 runs by which the Yankees outscored opponents, so the price leans on October form more than the season’s margin.
The Pennant Board Is Down To Three Teams
The legal sports betting pennant market now lists the Rays, Guardians and White Sox:
Tampa Bay Rays
- Previous odds
- -105
- Current odds
- -180
- Implies
- 64.3%
Cleveland Guardians
- Previous odds
- +1100
- Current odds
- +330
- Implies
- 23.3%
Chicago White Sox
- Previous odds
- +170
- Current odds
- +500
- Implies
- 16.7%
Cleveland’s move added 14.9 points to the number its price implies, and Chicago’s slide removed 20.4. The White Sox went from the Rays’ closest pursuer to the longest shot on the board after losing Games 3 and 4 by a combined 18-8.
Home Teams Are 0-4 Heading Into Game 5
Cleveland’s +330 is shorter than Chicago’s +500 even though the White Sox outscored opponents by 56 runs this season to the Guardians’ 11. The gap rests on Progressive Field and two straight wins, though neither has counted for much: the White Sox won both games in Cleveland, the Guardians won both in Chicago and the road team is 4-0.
Cleveland’s 9-5 win in Game 4 on Thursday, Oct. 8, at Rate Field turned on a sixth inning in which 10 Guardians batted and six scored. Reliever Grant Taylor faced six of those hitters and retired none, just one night after the White Sox had allowed nine runs in Game 3.
Cleveland is expected to start Gavin Williams in Game 5, even though he pitched the last three outs of Game 4 in relief, and Chicago is expected to counter with Sean Burke. Whoever survives Saturday travels to Tropicana Field, where the AL Championship Series opens Monday, Oct. 12.
