- Cleveland is priced at -157 for Game 1 and -145 for the series, and Chicago is +130 and +120.
- The Game 1 total of 7 sits about two runs below the 9.0 the two lineups averaged between them this season.
- Parker Messick starts for Cleveland after a 2.81 ERA against Chicago, while the White Sox have not named a pitcher.
- Chicago outscored opponents by 56 runs this season to Cleveland’s 11, yet the Guardians are the series favorite.
CLEVELAND – The ALDS Game 1 odds make the Cleveland Guardians a -157 favorite over the Chicago White Sox, who have not named a starter for Saturday’s 1 p.m. ET first pitch at Progressive Field. Left-hander Parker Messick starts for Cleveland in the TBS opener of the best-of-five American League Division Series.
Cleveland’s Pitching Carries The Price
The Guardians’ price rests on run prevention. Cleveland allowed 667 runs this season, the eighth fewest in the majors, while Chicago scored 776, the fifth most, and hit 211 home runs to Cleveland’s 162. Online sports betting markets have the Guardians shorter in the opener than in the series, with a total of 7:
Cleveland Guardians
- Game 1 odds
- -157
- Game 1 implies
- 61.1%
- Series odds
- -145
- Series implies
- 59.2%
Chicago White Sox
- Game 1 odds
- +130
- Game 1 implies
- 43.5%
- Series odds
- +120
- Series implies
- 45.5%
At -157 odds, the Guardians have to win 61.1% of the time just to break even, while a White Sox backer needs 43.5%. That is a steep ask for a club that finished 85-77, one game ahead of Chicago’s 84-78 in the AL Central, and whose run differential of +11 trailed Chicago’s +56 by 45 runs.
The season series offers no separation. Chicago won 7 of 13 meetings and outscored Cleveland 58-57, with seven games decided by a single run. A sample that tight leaves the starting pitchers as the deciding input, and that is where Cleveland holds its edge.
Messick Fits A Strikeout-Heavy Lineup
Messick got the Game 1 assignment Thursday from manager Stephen Vogt. The left-hander went 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA in 32 starts, sixth lowest in the majors, and struck out 25.8% of the batters he faced. Against Chicago he made four starts, allowed eight earned runs in 25⅔ innings for a 2.81 ERA and struck out 29 of 102 batters, or 28.4%.
The ERA over 25⅔ innings is a small sample, but a strikeout rate over 102 batters is more settled, and it ran 2.6 points above his season mark. The White Sox struck out in 24.1% of their plate appearances this season, fifth highest in the majors against a league baseline near 22%. Shortstop Colson Montgomery hit 31 home runs and struck out 227 times, the profile of a lineup that lives on power.
Chicago Has Not Named A Starter
After Wednesday’s clincher, manager Will Venable told reporters he had not settled on a Game 1 pitcher, and MLB’s probable-pitchers listing shows no starter for Chicago in Saturday’s opener or Monday’s Game 2. MLB.com names Erick Fedde, Anthony Kay and Davis Martin as the options and raises the chance of a bullpen game.
The +130 on Chicago was set with the starter listed as TBA, so the underdog number went up before the White Sox picked a pitcher. The price at legal MLB betting sites can change once one is named.
White Sox Arrive After A Sweep
Chicago had not won a postseason series since the 2005 World Series until this week, when it beat the Houston Astros 6-3 and 7-3 to sweep the wild-card round. Second-seeded Cleveland had a bye through that round.
Gavin Williams starts Game 2 on Monday at 5 p.m. ET at Progressive Field. Williams struck out 248 batters, the most in the American League and second in the majors, and carried a 3.98 ERA through his four Chicago starts. The series then moves to Chicago for Game 3 on Wednesday, Oct. 7, with Game 4, if needed, the next day and Game 5, if needed, Saturday, Oct. 10 in Cleveland.
