- The Denver Broncos are +2.5 and +125 on the moneyline against the San Francisco 49ers at -145, with the total at 48.
- Nick Bosa and James Thompson Jr. are out, and Mike Evans, Dre Greenlaw and Keion White missed Wednesday and Thursday practice.
- San Francisco leads the NFL at 7.35 yards per play and has not allowed a sack on 83 pass attempts.
- Denver has eight sacks in three games, and left tackle Trent Williams returned to practice Thursday only in a limited role.
SANTA CLARA, Calif. – Denver Broncos +2.5 is the best bet for Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET game at the 3-0 San Francisco 49ers, who will play without pass rusher Nick Bosa and defensive tackle James Thompson Jr. Receiver Mike Evans has missed two straight practices with a rib injury.
Denver’s Pass Rush Meets A Line With No Sacks Allowed
Quarterback Brock Purdy has thrown 83 passes without a sack, and San Francisco is the fourth team since 1990 to allow none through three games. The 49ers’ 0.62 EPA per dropback is first in the NFL and well clear of Dallas at 0.34, and it drives the league’s top offense at 0.26 EPA per play.
Denver led the NFL in sacks last season and have eight in three games this year, tied for ninth. San Francisco’s 22.5% pressure rate allowed is the league’s lowest, but Williams, who left the win over the Arizona Cardinals with a neck stinger, practiced on a limited basis Thursday. The Broncos’ pass defense is ninth in EPA allowed per dropback at -0.03.
The Front Seven And Evans Are The Question
Coach Kyle Shanahan said Bosa, who has a calf injury, and Thompson, who has a high ankle sprain, will not play. The defense is 17th in EPA per play allowed at 0.01 and gave up 30 points to Arizona without Bosa.
Evans, who signed with San Francisco in March after 12 seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, left the Arizona game in the first half. General manager John Lynch said Evans wants to play, but the 49ers are already without receivers Ricky Pearsall, De’Zhaun Stribling and Demarcus Robinson.
Denver’s offense is 24th in EPA per play at -0.05, and the Denver Gazette reported its 243 rushing yards rank second-to-last in the NFL. A thinner 49ers front gives J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey a better chance at room.
The Number Already Discounts San Francisco
| Bet | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos +2.5 | -105 | 51.2% |
| 49ers -2.5 | -115 | 53.5% |
| Broncos moneyline | +125 | 44.4% |
| 49ers moneyline | -145 | 59.2% |
| Total 48 | -110 each | 52.4% |
On the legal sports betting board, a 2.5-point home favorite is priced close to even with the visitor on a neutral field once the customary home-field allowance comes off. The 48 total splits to roughly 25 points for the 49ers and 23 for the Broncos, against the 32.7 points per game San Francisco has averaged and the 20.0 Denver has. The regression case is already in the price, so the bet rests on the injuries and Williams.
The Sample Behind The Efficiency Is Short
San Francisco’s 0.26 EPA per play comes from three games, short of the four to six games it takes team EPA to settle. Arizona and Miami, two of the three opponents, rank in the bottom five in EPA allowed, and the 27-7 win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 is the only result against a top-half defense. Purdy’s nine touchdown passes against one interception are also the sort of rates that regress.
What Beats The Pick
Denver’s run defense allows 0.11 EPA per rush, last in the NFL, and Christian McCaffrey returned to full practice Thursday after a rest day. A 49ers win by exactly three sinks a ticket at +2.5, so the +125 moneyline, which breaks even at a 44.4% win rate, is the route for a straight upset on the legal NFL betting slate.
Denver is 2-1 after rallying from 16-0 down to beat the Rams 30-26. Final game designations for Evans, Williams, Greenlaw and White come with the Friday injury report, and kickoff at Levi’s Stadium is 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS.
