North London Derby: Arsenal v Tottenham

  • Tottenham and Arsenal are difficult to handicap but past stats indicate taking both teams to score and the over together.
  • Bournemouth and Brighton might be in the middle of the table, but Bournemouth’s success in the season could have them cruise to victory.
  • Man City is a heavy favorite vs Nottingham, but a spread bet on the number of corners can offer a cheaper risk or a higher payout on the odds.

BOURNEMOUTH – After a great Saturday of English Premier League action, a trio of Sunday games leaves some action to end the weekend.

While only three matches headline the day, there is still action for every game in one form or another.

Tottenham v Arsenal

All signs are pointing to Arsenal doing well against the Spurs, but they are only -130 odds on the moneyline.

With the Asian handicap set at -0.5,-1 in favor of Arsenal, oddsmakers at legal soccer sportsbooks online are expecting a close battle.

But our focus stems from connecting two bets.

Expert bettors will note that 3 goals at -125 odds on the over is a tough ask. This requires four goals to win, and the shading makes it pricey.

Instead, using past data can help reduce this. Look at the bottom of the sportsbook in “combo props”. Here, you will find an EPL soccer bet broken down as such.

Both Teams To Score And Over 2.5 Goals

  • Yes, Over -135
  • No, Over +675
  • Yes, Under +675
  • No, Under +230

By the odds, the books are expecting both teams to score at least three goals. While backers of Arsenal or Tottenham can find a chance at +675 odds changing this, we’re following the book here.

It makes sense too, as Tottenham’s last 12 matches at home have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals for the game.

Bournemouth v Brighton & Hove Albion

In what is the most even matchup for Sunday, both mid-level teams have plus odds on the three-way moneyline.

Bournemouth v Brighton Odds

  • Bournemouth +120
  • Brighton +195
  • Draw +285

But it seems the Cherries have a lot more on the table to end the season than Brighton does.

This is because Bournemouth can land in the top 8 – their highest ever finish in the English Premier League table. As for Brighton, they’ve only recorded six wins over their last 27 EPL games (11 draws, 10 losses), something that has manager Roberto de Zerbi on the hot seat.

With this, taking the +120 odds on Bournemouth at legal sports betting sites is the move with safe bettors also dropping a unit or a percentage on the draw option.

Bournemouth has gone through five EPL home games without losing and looks to make it six for the first time since October 2018.

Nottingham v Manchester City

For the Manchester City Nottingham Forest match, we’re looking at the prop bets on corners.

As Man City is -325 on the moneyline, most bettors don’t like laying that much down so finding a different stat is imperative. Knowing that Nottingham Forest has the second-fewest corners on the year per game, we can play this to our advantage.

Manchester City is projected at 7.5 corners for the game (Over -120). Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest is projected at 2.5 corners (Over -160).

Getting a near-same bet a little cheaper, the legal sportsbooks also have Man City -3.5 (-140) for the total corners handicap.

Playing this means Manchester City will have at least four more corners than Nottingham – something they’ve done easily in two of their last three EPL meetings.

Date City Corners Nottingham Corners Bet Hit?
9/23/23 6 6 No
2/18/23 10 0 Yes
8/31/23 10 1 Yes
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