- Baeza is the best bet to win the Kentucky Derby. The longshot has shown elite top-end speed and has improved its ESpeed figures in its last few races.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The favorites for the 2025 Kentucky Derby are Journalism (3/1), Sovereignty (5/1), and Sandman (6/1), but the best bet is on longshot Baeza with 12/1 odds.
2025 Kentucky Derby Odds
| Post Number | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20/1 |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30/1 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30/1 |
| 5 | American Promise | 30/1 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30/1 |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15/1 |
| 8 | Journalism | 3/1 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12/1 |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30/1 |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20/1 |
| 13 | Publisher | 30/1 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20/1 |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 30/1 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30/1 |
| 17 | Sandman | 6/1 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5/1 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30/1 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30/1 |
| 21 | Baeza | 12/1 |
Bet on Longshot Baeza to Win the Kentucky Derby
With 12/1 odds at Kentucky Derby betting sites, Baeza is a mild longshot at Churchill Downs on Saturday.
Baeza will be jockeyed by Flavien Prat, who has a very impressive history at Triple Crown events. Some of the notable performances by Prat-jockeyed horses include:
- Country House (2019 Kentucky Derby Winner)
- Hot Rod Charlie (2021 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes Runner Up)
- Rombauer (2021 Preakness Stakes Winner)
Prat’s experience in the high-profile races is not the only reason to bet on Baeza to win The Run for the Roses at legal horse racing betting sites.
In fact, the main reason to bet on Baeza to beat favorites like Journalism and Sovereignty is not based on the jockey, but the fact that the horse is fast and is trending in the right direction.
That point is made clear when examining the two most recent Equibase Speed Figures (ESpeed) for each horse in their prior two races.
- Note: Admire Daytona and Luxor Café did not have ESpeeds for their most recent events and were removed from the dataset.
Recent ESpeed Figures of Kentucky Derby Horses
| Horse | Odds | Most Recent Race | 2nd Most Recent Race | Average ESpeed Last 2 Races |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journalism | 3/1 | 108 | 110 | 109 |
| Baeza | 12/1 | 107 | 104 | 105.5 |
| Sandman | 6/1 | 104 | 101 | 102.5 |
| Citizen Bull | 20/1 | 94 | 107 | 100.5 |
| Publisher | 30/1 | 100 | 98 | 99 |
| Burnham Square | 12/1 | 104 | 93 | 98.5 |
| Coal Battle | 30/1 | 93 | 104 | 98.5 |
| Owen Almighty | 30/1 | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Tiztastic | 20/1 | 99 | 94 | 96.5 |
| Sovereignty | 5/1 | 94 | 98 | 96 |
| Flying Mohawk | 30/1 | 91 | 97 | 94 |
| Render Judgment | 30/1 | 98 | 90 | 94 |
| American Promise | 30/1 | 101 | 86 | 93.5 |
| Chunk of Gold | 30/1 | 96 | 91 | 93.5 |
| Neoequos | 30/1 | 90 | 94 | 92 |
| Final Gambit | 30/1 | 96 | 84 | 90 |
| East Avenue | 20/1 | 104 | 71 | 87.5 |
Some of the reasons to bet on Baeza when considering those datapoints include:
- Baeza has the second highest ESpeed average of all the horses in the Derby, behind only the favorite, Journalism.
- Baeza’s 104 ESpeed figure in their second most recent race (A Miaden Special Weight race at Santa Anita Track) is tied for the fifth fastest ESpeed by any horse in their last two races, and Baeza still managed to improve on that in their most recent race (Santa Anita Derby).
- Journalism is the only horse to beat Baeza in a race or in an ESpeed comparison in the field, but the horses may be going in opposite directions. Journalism’s speed figure went down in their last race, while Baeza went up. Journalism only barely beat Baeza at the Santa Anita Derby, and if they lose any more speed, they are unlikely to beat them again.
With high-end speed and a propensity for improvement, the best way to bet on the Kentucky Derby at legal sports betting sites is to bet on longshot Baeza to win the race with 12/1 odds.
