Best Bet For Each CFP Quarterfinal Game On New Year’s Day

Written By:

Drew Gniadek

Published On:

January 1, 2026 12:02 AM

CFP Quarterfinal Odds _ Kirby Smart
  • Oregon is the only team of the four lower seeds to be favored in the CFP quarterfinal games.
  • Conference champions Indiana and Georgia find themselves as relatively large favorites over SEC rivals.

MIAMI – New Year’s Day will see three College Football Playoff games, starting with the Oregon Ducks and the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl and Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

CFP Quarterfinal Odds: #5 Oregon vs #4 Texas Tech

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Oregon -2.5 (-115)  -135 O 51.5 (-110)
Texas Tech +2.5 (-115) +115 U 51.5 (-110)

The lower seeded Ducks enter as 2.5 point favorites at legal sports betting sites after dropping 51 points against Sun Belt champion James Madison. Texas Tech has been off since winning the Big 12 championship on December 6th over BYU.

The best bet for this game is going to be under 51.5 total points (-110) with each team ranking top five in defensive efficiency in the country.

Both teams rank top five in opponent yards per pass attempt and Texas Tech is second in opponent yards per carry, while Oregon ranks 20th.

The Ducks rank second in the country in yards per carry offensively, meaning it will be strength on strength in the trenches when Oregon has the ball. Oregon does have a fairly significant advantage offensively, so they likely have a better chance to pull out a win outright, but bettors can expect a low scoring contest.

CFP Quarterfinal Odds: #8 Alabama vs #1 Indiana

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Alabama +7.0 (-110)  +195  O 48.0 (-110)
Indiana -7.0 (-110) -235  U 48.0 (-110)

The top ranked Indiana Hoosiers come in as touchdown favorites over the Crimson Tide in the second contest Thursday after winning their first Big Ten title since 1967. Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza is a large part of why Indiana should be able to cover the spread.

The Hoosiers averaged a ridiculous 9.2 yards per pass attempt throughout the season and finished with the seventh most efficient offense in the country to go along with the 14th most efficient defense.

Alabama has struggled to find consistency all season long, scoring just 21 points or less in three of their last six games and finishing as the 70th most efficient offense. Their defense has been good, but not great, finishing 29th in opponent yards per play.

Seven points is a lot in a playoff football game, but Indiana has shown that they are a better team all season long and there is no reason that they shouldn’t be able to do so again.

CFP Quarterfinal Odds: #6 Ole Miss vs #3 Georgia

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Ole Miss  +6.0 (EVEN)  +200  O 56.0 (-110)
Georgia -6.0 (-120) -240 U 56.0 (-110)

College football betting sites give the Bulldogs a six point cushion over Ole Miss in an SEC rematch that saw a 43-35 shootout in favor of Georgia the first time around.

Bettors should have confidence betting on Georgia to cover the six point spread as their defense coming to life at the right time. The Bulldogs had struggled defensively for most of the season, but have allowed just 10 or fewer points in each of their last three games. These matchups came against 10th ranked Texas, 23rd ranked Georgia Tech, and 9th ranked Alabama.

Ole Miss has been great offensively all season long, but their defense has left much to be desired and has been shredded by this Georgia offense once before.

With a defense playing with confidence and the championship pedigree of Kirby Smart, the Georgia Bulldogs look poised for a deep playoff run.

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Ben Fiore

Drew Gniadek

Drew is currently a student at Florida State University, originally from Massachusetts. He has a background playing basketball, including both for the high school varsity team and pool basketball with his friends. Drew is a die-hard Celtics fan and also enjoys football and baseball.