- Under 28.5 points for the Kansas City Chiefs is the best bet for NFL Thanksgiving because of an underrated Dallas Cowboys defense and an overrated Chiefs offense.
DALLAS – The best bet for the NFL on Thanksgiving is on the under for the 28.5 team total for the Kansas City Chiefs versus the Dallas Cowboys.
The under for the 28.5 team total for the Kansas City Chiefs at NFL Thanksgiving betting sites is the best bet for two key reasons:
- The Dallas Cowboys’ defense is much better than their 31st-ranked points per game against ranking suggests.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have the most overrated offense in the NFL at legal sports betting sites.
Bet on the Dallas Cowboys’ Defense During NFL Thanksgiving
Defense has been a struggle for the Dallas Cowboys this season and last. The Cowboys’ defense gave up 27.5 points per game last season (31st) and 28.5 points per game this season (31st).
But, sharp bettors at sports betting sites in Texas will note that the national and betting perception of the Cowboys’ defense is no longer accurate.
The defense has improved considerably in three statistical categories each month, and has also shown considerable improvement in the two games since the trade for Quinnen Williams. Those statistical categories are:
- Points per game for the opponents
- Yards per game by opponents
- Expected points contributed by all defense (this statistic is available when looking at (2025 NFL defensive stats at Pro Football Reference)
Dallas Cowboys Defense By Month
| Month | PPG Allowed | Total Yards Allowed | EXP Points Contributed by Defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| September | 33 | 420.5 | -18.93 |
| October | 29.5 | 388.75 | -7.76 |
| November | 21.33 | 305 | -1.14 |
The month-by-month and pre-/post-Quinnen Williams stats both show a significantly improved Dallas Cowboys defense that is unlikely to allow more than 28.5 points versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
Dallas Cowboys Defense With and Without Quinnen Williams
| Timeframe | PPG Allowed | Total Yards Allowed | EXP Points Contributed by Defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Quinnen Williams Trade | 30.78 | 397.44 | -12.90 |
| Post-Quinnen Williams Trade | 18.5 | 287.5 | 2.98 |
Bet Against an Overrated Kansas City Chiefs Offense
The Kansas City Chiefs, led by future Hall-of-Famers Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid, have been the worst offense to bet on in the NFL this season.
The Chiefs offense gets a lot of national support through the media, which often convinces bettors to bet on the team to go over their point total. Because of that national sway, the Chiefs’ point total lines are often overinflated, which means unders are very common.
In 2025, the under has hit in 8 of the Chiefs’ 11 games, with the games going under the total by an average of 4.3 points.
This is not a coincidence at NFL betting sites either.
Kansas City Chiefs games have gone over their total in only 23 of 62 regular-season games (37.1%) since 2022. That was the first after the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins.
The Chiefs’ offense has been overinflated by bettors ever since then at legal sports betting sites in Missouri.
The under for the 28.5 team total with -125 odds for the Kansas City Chiefs is an excellent opportunity for bettors to cash in on these betting trends for their showdown versus the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
