- Betting the over for Kareem Hunt’s receiving yards in Week Three may be profitable based on history.
- Najee Harris’s struggles to start the season are likely to continue, meaning betting under his rushing yards prop is a good bet.
CLEVELAND – Thursday night football between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns will represent a good opportunity to bet on elite running backs via prop bets at legal NFL sportsbooks.
The game is expected to be low scoring, with the 38.5-point total the lowest in the NFL heading into Week Three.
Because of the expected low-scoring affair, it makes sense to focus on yardage-based bets instead of guessing which player might score one of the game’s few touchdowns.
Betting on Kareem Hunt’s receiving yards prop
NFL sportsbooks have set the total for Kareem Hunt’s receiving yard prop considerably too low heading into Week Three.
Kareem Hunt Receiving Yards
- Over 15.5 Yards -110
- Under 15.5 Yards -120
That number may seem reasonable to some, but three key trends point directly towards Hunt going over that total:
- Kareem Hunt’s start in 2022: Sportsbooks may be overreacting to Kareem Hunt playing 14 fewer snaps in Week Two than he did in Week One. That does not matter, as the focus needs to be on the fact that he has 24 yards and 16 yards receiving in each game.
- Pittsburgh’s weakness against RBs: Through two games, the Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed three running backs to clear 15.5 yards out of the backfield. Week One saw Pittsburgh allow Joe Mixon to accumulate 63 yards through the air and for his backup, Samaje Perine to catch three passes for 33 yards. Last week, Damian Harris had 16 receiving yards.
- Kareem Hunt vs the Steelers: Hunt has played the Pittsburgh Steelers six times during the regular season throughout his career. He has gone over 15.5 receiving yards in four of those matchups.
Betting against Najee Harris rushing yards
Legal sports betting sites have put Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop betting line at 53.5-yards. Given his performance this season, it may be wise to bet on the under with -115 odds.
Najee Harris’s rushing yards bet
- Over 53.5 Yards -115
- Under 53.5 Yards -115
Harris’s poor performance dates back to last season, as he has failed to hit at least 50 yards in his past four starts dating back to last season.
Najee Harris has already accumulated 25 carries this season. Among all players with at least 20 carries, five less than Najee, Harris ranks dead last with 72 rushing yards.
He may be likely to break out eventually, but the Browns’ defense ranks fourth in fewest rushing yards allowed per game this season.
Betting against the Najee Harris breakout game by betting the under for rushing yards this week is a great option for Thursday Night Football.
Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.