- Robinson’s rushing total of 76.5 yards sits below the 86.9 yards a game he averaged across 17 games in 2025.
- His receiving total is 34.5 yards even though he caught 79 passes for 820 yards a season ago.
- Sportsbooks price him near -150 to score anytime, in line with the 11 total touchdowns he scored last season.
- Pittsburgh’s run defense ranked 22nd of 32 teams in expected points allowed per rushing play in 2025.
PITTSBURGH – Bijan Robinson’s rushing total for Sunday’s season opener sits at 76.5 yards and his receiving total at 34.5, both below the per-game rates he posted a year ago against a Pittsburgh defense that finished 2025 in the bottom half of the NFL against the run.
A Rushing Total Below His Own Pace
Robinson carried 287 times for 1,478 yards in 2025, a 5.2-yard average that worked out to 86.9 yards a game across the 17 games he played for Atlanta. Sunday’s number asks more than 10 yards less than that full-season rate, even though Pittsburgh ranked 22nd of 32 teams in expected points allowed per rushing play, a below-average mark. The gap between his own history and the posted total is the case for the over.
The Receiving Role Adds A Second Path
The receiving line tells a similar story. Robinson caught 79 of 103 targets for 820 yards and four touchdowns a year ago, a 48.2-yard-a-game rate that runs nearly 14 yards above Sunday’s 34.5 total. More than a third of his yardage came through the air, and the posted number does not yet price in that share of his game.
The Scoring Price Matches Last Year’s Rate
Legal sports betting markets price Robinson near -150 to score anytime. He reached the end zone 11 times in 2025, seven rushing and four receiving, a per-game rate that supports the number without assuming a bigger role Sunday.
What’s Next
Sunday’s opener kicks off the NFL season for both teams, who enter at 0-0. The distance between Robinson’s 2025 workload and the posted props offers an early read on how books view the Falcons’ backfield to open the year. Kickoff is 1 p.m. ET Sunday at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, with Fox carrying the broadcast.
