- The total sits at 6.5 with the under -115 at Bovada, and at 7 with the under -125 at BetOnline.
- Three of Chris Sale’s last four starts landed at three or fewer total runs.
- Three of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s last four starts finished with five runs or fewer.
- Atlanta and Los Angeles rank fifth and sixth in the majors in team ERA at 3.61 and 3.69.
ATLANTA – The Braves-Dodgers under for Thursday night’s series finale at Truist Park costs -115 at 6.5 runs at Bovada and -125 at 7 runs at BetOnline. Chris Sale and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, second and third in the National League in ERA, close out the matchup of division leaders.
The Number Already Says Quiet
Both books shaded the total further toward the under overnight and into Thursday morning, Bovada moving the under from -110 to -115 while easing the over to -105, and BetOnline pushing its under from -120 to -125. A total of 6.5 runs is about as low as a major league board goes, so the case the two aces’ recent form makes has to clear a price that already assumes most of it. Anyone arriving now pays more for the same side the earlier numbers sold cheaper.
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 6.5 (Bovada) | -105 |
| Under 6.5 (Bovada) | -115 |
| Over 7 (BetOnline) | +105 |
| Under 7 (BetOnline) | -125 |
| Braves moneyline | -128 |
| Dodgers moneyline | +107 |
The half run separating the books is the real decision on the low side. BetOnline’s 7 at -125 costs 10 more cents than Bovada’s 6.5 at -115 for a cushion that has not mattered once in this sample, since none of the eight games the two pitchers started over the past month landed on exactly 7.
Sale Keeps Losing Low-Scoring Games
Sale, 12-9 with a 2.20 ERA, has allowed six earned runs over 24 innings across his last four starts, a 2.25 ERA in the stretch, and lost three of them anyway. The finals ran 2-1 at Milwaukee, 2-0 against Arizona, 5-4 at Yankee Stadium and 1-0 at the Mets, so three of the four stayed at three total runs or fewer, and the lone exception came in the Bronx.
The Milwaukee loss was the start covered when the NL pennant race narrowed to two last week. Atlanta scored six runs total behind him in the four games, which is why his unders keep cashing while his record sinks.
Yamamoto’s Games Stay In Range
Yamamoto, 12-7 with a 2.61 ERA, has allowed six earned runs over 26 1/3 innings in his own last four. The finals were a 3-2 loss to Boston in which he went eight innings, a 2-1 10-inning win at Arizona with 5 2/3 scoreless, a 3-1 win over Milwaukee and a 5-4 10-inning win over Pittsburgh. Three of the four finished with five runs or fewer, and the Pittsburgh game was the only one to clear Thursday’s number.
Both pitchers back rotations ranked in the majors’ top six by team ERA, Atlanta fifth at 3.61 and Los Angeles sixth at 3.69, so the bullpen innings behind each starter hold the same profile as the starts themselves.
A Sweep And The Season Series On The Line
Atlanta has taken the first two games of the series and leads the season series 4-1, with the NL East-leading Braves at 78-55 and the NL West-leading Dodgers at 80-53. Bovada prices Atlanta at -128 on the MLB moneyline with Los Angeles at +107, and prices across legal sports betting sites will keep moving on lineups until first pitch at 7:15 p.m. ET. A Braves win would complete the sweep and close the season series at 5-1.
