Kansas vs Iowa State

  • The best bet for Iowa State vs Kansas is on the Cyclones because the Jayhawks have a statistical profile that indicates that they are overrated.

LAWRENCE, Kan. – Betting odds for the top 11 matchup between the Kansas Jayhawks and Iowa State Cyclones have made the Bill Self-coached Jayhawks a three-point favorite at home.

After dominating at Allen Fieldhouse for so many years under Bill Self, Kansas only being favored by three points may be shocking to many people. But, they should not be favored at all tonight.

Kansas vs Iowa State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Iowa State +3.0 (-115) +120 O 146.5 (-110)
Kansas -3.0 (-105) -140 U 146.5 (-110)

Bet on Iowa State to Beat Kansas

Iowa State has lost three of their past five games, including two straight. Despite that, they are still a good bet with +120 moneyline odds at college basketball betting sites.

That’s because Kansas may be the most overrated team in the country.

Their statistical profile compared to the other 364 Division One teams shows that they can’t and won’t shoot (free throws and threes), cause very few turnovers on defense, and may be lucky to only have six losses this season as a result.

Can’t and Won’t Shoot

Kansas ranks 351st in free throw attempts per game, 159th in free throw percentage, 279th in three-point attempts per game, and 181st in three-point percentage.

When a team shoots that few threes, that typically means that they are more aggressive going to the basket and drawing more fouls as a result. Kansas does the first part but isn’t drawing any fouls.

These are the two leading factors as to why Kansas ranks 117th in offensive rating when looking at other 2025 CBB advanced stats.

That offensive rating may be in the upper third of the rest of the country, but among other top 14 teams in the AP Poll, it is dead last.

Where Top 14 Teams Rank in Offensive Rating

AP Rank School Offensive Rating Rating Rank
1 Auburn 123.3 1
2 Duke 120.9 5
3 Iowa State 116.5 29
4 Alabama 118.3 14
5 Florida 118.2 16
6 Houston 118.3 15
7 Michigan State 114.3 55
8 Tennessee 113.5 64
9 Marquette 114.1 58
10 Purdue 116.2 33
11 Kansas 110.3 117
12 Kentucky 119.6 10
13 Texas A&M 111 105
14 Mississippi State 114.8 48

All of the other top 14 schools rank higher in free throw attempt rate and 13 of the teams have a higher three-point attempt rate (Michigan State is the outlier).

Kansas’s inability to attempt and convert both free throws and three-pointers has made them an offensive outlier among other top-ranked teams.

Inability to Cause Turnovers

The Jayhawks rank as the 252nd-best team (out of 364) in the country at causing turnovers. They only cause 11.5 per game.

This may not matter as much on the defensive end (Kansas’s opponents have a 48.2% true shooting percentage that is 12th-best in the country), but it is leading to fewer fast break opportunities that the offensive-starved team needs.

Bet Against Kansas

Kansas’s struggles to create highly efficient shots (free throws, transition layups, and threes) make them very vulnerable compared to other top teams and other Jayhawks teams of the past.

That has proven to be correct as they have lost two of their past three games, with their only win coming by four points at home against the unranked UCF Knights.

Their inability to shoot and covert both threes and free throws coupled with their inability to create turnovers even caused them to get blown out 74-57 by Iowa State less than three weeks ago.

Kansas vs Iowa State Stats from January 15

Stat Kansas Iowa State
Free Throws 4/11 (36.4%) 18/25 (72%)
Threes 5/16 (31.3%) 8/13 (61.5%)
Turnovers 17 13

Despite all of these clear weaknesses, legal online betting sites are giving players a chance to bet on Iowa State to win outright with +120 odds to beat Kansas.

Given their statistical profiles, this may be one of the few times left this season that Kansas is favored against a top team.

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