- Sitting at -4, the Kansas City Chiefs are seeing a strong majority of the betting action vs. the Buffalo Bills.
- Sharps are backing the Washington Football Team’s underdog odds of +130 over the New York Giants.
NEW YORK – When betting on the NFL, it is vital to know what liabilities the sportsbook hold. Understanding where the public money has gone on each side of the NFL betting lines can help new (and experienced) bettors get a leg up on the books.
There is no exact science to reading the bets placed and total money accumulated but popular taglines include “fade the public” and “follow the sharps”.
These are the same concept generally but bettors look for different backgrounds to find their best betting line. In other words, fading the public is best when a high percentage of bets placed and money in liabilities is on one side of the line.
For following the sharps, it is best to look for betting lines that have a lesser percentage of bets placed but a much higher percentage of money received.
Fade The Public – NFL Week 6
With over two-thirds of the bets placed on the Kansas City Chiefs side of the matchup, the legal sportsbooks are seeing even more amount of money in their favor as well.
Sitting around 90% of the total liability, betting on the Buffalo Bills (at home) is the best play to fade the public.
Betting against the Chiefs is never advised but once a sportsbook has over 90% liability on one side of the line, it is expected to either move or become more expensive.
The former did occur, as the Chiefs betting line moved from –3 to -4 through the week, but at +4, the Bills look like the play.
In a similar situation, the Green Bay Packers (-1) are getting the majority of the action. Opening at +3, the line has moved majorly in favor of the Packers but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers getting a point at home is tough to bet against.
Like the Chiefs, nearly two-thirds of all bets placed on this matchup side with the Packers; however, the total money is slightly lighter than that of KC.
Still, with 83% of the money backing the Packers, the public has seemed to play their hand hard here.
Follow The Sharps – NFL Week 6
In one of the uglier matchups of the week, the New York Jets will take on the Miami Dolphins in South Florida. The Dolphins have plenty of momentum behind them and the Jets have the complete opposite.
Still, that hasn’t stopped the sharps from backing the Jets. At +9.5, the Jets have only a third of the total bets placed in their favor. However, roughly 60% of the money on the line is in support of the Jets as well.
With this difference, it shows that despite more people betting on the Dolphins, the ones with the most to risk are finding value in the Jets.
The line opened at +8.5 and moved to +9.5 and due to this, the sharps want no part of the Dolphins.
Another popular bet from the sharps comes from an NFL moneyline bet.
Backing the underdogs in the Washington Football Team, the sharps are prepared to enjoy their +130 odds. Despite the New York Giants being at home, experienced bettors aren’t impressed, though the public shifted the line from -140 to -145 in favor of New York.
Just over half of the bets placed are on the Giants’ moneyline (55%) but the total percentage of dollars supporting the G-Men sits well below half.
In fact, with only 45% of the bets placed, the Washington Football Team has nearly two-thirds of the total liability.
With this, there are four bets to keep an eye on for NFL Week 7 based on the sharps and pubic betting perception.
Notable Week 7 NFL Bets
- Bills +4
- Buccaneers +1
- Jets +9.5
- Washington +130
For those who are looking for some solid plays, these may be the best NFL picks this week. For those who are slightly more risk-averse, they may throw all four of these bets into a parlay.
With an underdog on the moneyline, it only helps boost the payout, which would be $150 on a $10 bet.
Michael began writing as an NBA content writer and has spent time scouting college basketball for Florida State University under Leonard Hamilton and the University of Alabama under Anthony Grant. A graduate of both schools, he covers topics focused on legal sports betting, betting odds, and casino reviews. Michael likes to golf, play basketball, hike, and kayak when not glued to the TV watching NBA games.