- Sportsbooks are offering -420 odds for the No. 15 seeds in the upcoming NCAA Tournament to go winless in the first round.
- Additionally, -1300 odds are available for all the No. 16-seeds to lose, while -625 odds are listed for a No. 11 seed to win a game in the round of 64.
INDIANAPOLIS – Betting March Madness can be one of the hardest events to predict due to the sporadic and unexpected nature of the single-elimination tournament.
After all, it is the improbable upsets that make the NCAA Tournament the spectacle it is today.
If March Madness was easy to predict, then someone out there would have millions of Warren Buffett’s money. Instead, no one on record has ever had a perfect bracket in modern recordable history.
Instead of trying to nail the most statistically improbable bet in sports, bettors are focusing on some unique prop and futures bets dealing with higher-seeded teams in this year’s tournament.
Some of the most recent lines posted on the legal online sportsbooks feature a few bets with very heavily favored odds. While paying the high price for a wager line comes with added risk for less reward, there are a handful of bets that might be worth the chance.
Will A #11 Seed Win A Game In The Round Of 64?
- Yes -625
- No +385
Take for example this line that asks if an 11-seed will win a single game in the first round of the tournament.
The 11-seeds face off against the 6-seeds in one of the most commonly-upset games of the first round. In fact, 11 seeds have gone 52-88 all-time in the first round of the tournament, for a near 37% win percentage.
A bettor would have to wager $625 to win $100 in return, but in terms of pure return on investment, that isn’t a bad take.
Additionally, the price drops for 12 seeds in their matchups with 5 seeds.
Will A #12 Seed Win A Game In The Round Of 64?
- Yes -340
- No +240
The 12-5 matchup is one of the most common and popular upsets every year in the NCAA tournament.
Through the last 40 years of March Madness, 50 12-seeds have beaten 5 seeds in the first round for a win percentage of 36%. That is nearly the same as the 11-6 matchup.
A $340 bet wins $100 on an outcome that has happened in nearly every tournament over the last 40 years.
Will A #13 Seed Win A Game In The Round Of 64?
- Yes -190
- No +145
Even the 13-seeds have earned some love from the college basketball sportsbooks.
While the 13-4 matchup is less commonly won by the underdog, the value is immensely increased at -190 odds.
However, the 13 seeds have only won 21% percent of their matchups over the years. Still, 21% over all four games for a near 1:2 payout is a decent line for any probability aficionados out there.
Finally, those looking to bet on the most improbable of outcomes can find odds for the 15 and 16 seeds as well.
Will A #15 Seed Win A Game In The Round Of 64?
- Yes +285
- No -420
The no bet here is where the value lies, since 15-seeds have only gone 8-132 for a 6% win percentage.
A $420 bet wins $100 with a field of 2-seeds that are rather strong this year. Teams like the Iona Gaels and the Cleveland St. Viking certainly have a chance to win, but history is far from on their side.
Those looking to make the ultimate wager can find odds for the 16-seeds to do the impossible.
Will A #16 Seed Win A Game In The Round Of 64?
- Yes +625
- No -1300
Most bettors know that only one team in NCAA history has defeated a 1-seed in the first round, with the UMBC Retrievers taking down the Virginia Cavaliers in 2018.
Three years ago today, 16-seed UMBC made history and upset 1-seed Virginia pic.twitter.com/HcKfRYIPvU
— BroBible (@BroBible) March 16, 2021
While that game was one of the most epic wins in sports history, anyone betting on the 16-seeds is looking at a 1-139 win-loss record in the first round.
Instead, high rollers could throw down the massive $1300 juice for a $100 profit on the 1-seeds to survive the upset this year.
Betting anything with a 0.07% chance of failure is recommended, but few will likely have the bravery to lay down that kind of cheddar. Still, the March Madness betting fans would be rewarded with a 77% return.
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Jimmy began his journalistic journey as a stat recorder and PA announcer for his middle school baseball team. Full of experience across print, broadcast, and sports radio, he brings his knowledge and toolkit to the LegalSportsBetting team. You can find him watching sports, making parlays, and listening to music on any day ending in Y.