- Hunter Greene has a 50-50 chance of being traded before Monday’s 6 p.m. ET deadline.
- Two starts, against Baltimore and St. Louis, account for 14 of his 17 earned runs.
- Greene has struck out 29 in 21 2/3 innings, and his 4.68 expected ERA sits far under the 7.06.
- Cincinnati is 51-57 and +40000 to win the World Series, a payout implying roughly 0.2%.
CINCINNATI – Cincinnati Reds right-hander Hunter Greene has a 50-50 chance of being traded before Monday’s 6 p.m. ET deadline, and the 7.06 ERA any buyer is judging him on is almost entirely the work of two starts.
Two Starts Carry 14 Of The 17 Earned Runs
MLB.com reported Thursday that the chance of a move by Monday sits at 50-50. Cincinnati is 51-57 and 5.5 games behind the final National League wild card spot. Greene has made four starts since surgery in March to remove bone chips from his right elbow cost him the first three-plus months of the season.
Those four starts split cleanly. His July 4 return against the Baltimore Orioles lasted 3 1/3 innings and cost eight earned runs on four walks. His most recent outing, at St. Louis, went 5 1/3 innings and cost six more runs. The two starts account for 14 of his 17 earned runs on the season, in 8 2/3 combined innings.
The other two look like a different pitcher. Greene threw seven scoreless innings against the Chicago Cubs on three hits and one walk with 12 strikeouts, then went six innings at Coors Field, the most run-inflating park in baseball, allowing three runs with seven strikeouts and no walks. Combined: 13 innings, three earned runs, 19 strikeouts.
The Stuff Came Back Before The Results Did
Greene has faced 94 batters this season. That is past the point where strikeout rate starts carrying signal and nowhere near the point where an ERA does. His 29 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings work out to 12.0 per nine against 2.9 walks per nine, the shape of a front-line starter rather than a rehab project.
The underlying contact numbers agree, to a point. Baseball Savant puts his expected ERA at 4.68, more than two full runs below the 7.06 he has actually posted, the standard signature of a small sample distorted by sequencing and defense rather than by process. His four-seamer is averaging 98.4 mph, down 1.1 from last season’s 99.5, and it remains his primary pitch at 52.1% usage.
The caveat is that the fastball is not the pitch doing the damage. It has drawn a 22.2% whiff rate while allowing a .365 expected wOBA against a league average near .320, so hitters have squared it up even at 98 mph. Greene’s swing-and-miss belongs to the slider, which he throws 32.9% of the time and which has missed on 46.4% of swings.
Buyers Are Paying For 2027 And 2028, Not October
Greene is not a rental, which is what separates this negotiation from every other arm on the market. His six-year, $53 million extension signed in April 2023 owes him $15 million in 2027 and $16 million in 2028, with a $21 million club option for 2029 carrying a $2 million buyout. He turns 27 on Aug. 6.
That structure is the asset, and it is the part no MLB betting market settles this year. A club trading prospects for Greene is buying two guaranteed seasons at mid-rotation money on the chance that the 21 2/3 innings since his return understate him, not buying two months of a pennant race.
The Board Prices October, Not 2028
World Series betting prices this October and nothing beyond it, which is why a controllable arm four starts removed from a comeback is a different proposition than a proven ace on an expiring deal. Cincinnati’s own number, +40000, is a payout implying roughly 0.2%, and it explains the seller’s posture.
| Team | World Series odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +190 | 34.5% |
| New York Yankees | +550 | 15.4% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | +900 | 10.0% |
| Atlanta Braves | +1100 | 8.3% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | +1400 | 6.7% |
| Cincinnati Reds | +40000 | 0.2% |
Odds are a payout, not a probability. The Dodgers at +190 pay less than 2-to-1 on a number that implies about 34.5%, and whether Los Angeles is genuinely better than that figure is the wager.
Where a price sits on the board also changes what a move means. Shortening the Dodgers from +190 to +150 is worth about five and a half points of implied probability, while the same arithmetic at the bottom of the board moves a longshot’s payout far more visibly than its implied number.
Futures on the season’s outcome are among the longest-running markets in legal sports betting, and they settle on Oct. 30. Clubs cannot trade at all once Monday passes, so anything agreed before then is the last deal these prices will take in.
What Happens Monday
The deadline is Monday, Aug. 3, at 6 p.m. ET. If Greene is not moved by then, he stays under Reds control through 2028 with the club option for 2029, and the next window to trade him opens in the offseason.
