The Memorial Golf Tournament

  • Rory McIlroy is the best bet for the Memorial Tournament (+1100) based on strokes gained around the green and tee-to-green.
  • According to those same statistics, betting odds longshot Chris Kirk (+6600) may be the only golfer who can compete with him this weekend.

DUBLIN, Ohio – A loaded field of golfers are set to begin competing to win the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village beginning on Thursday. Online sportsbooks suggest that this may be a very close tournament, with six players with odds of +1800 or shorter.

The Memorial Tournament Odds

  • Jon Rahm +1000
  • Rory McIlroy +1100
  • Patrick Cantlay +1600
  • Cameron Smith +1800
  • Collin Morikawa +1800
  • Xander Schauffele +1800

Betting The Memorial Based On Relative Statistics

Last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge important course statistics were used to find the golfers with the best odds to win the tournament. The highest-rated golfer did not win, but the second and third highest-rated golfers (Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns) came in first and second.

That validation proves that there may be some insight to glean from attacking golf tournaments this way.

According to Riley Hamel of Golfweek the most important stats to pay attention to are strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained around the green.

Using each player’s last 50 rounds as a sample size, one of the favorites and one long shot are significantly ahead of every other golfer.

Highest Combined Strokes Gained From Tee-to-Green And Around The Green

Name Total World Golf Rank Odds
Rory McIlroy 2.172 8 +1100
Chris Kirk 2.130 63 +6600
Jordan Spieth 1.683 10 +2000
Shane Lowry 1.678 27 +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick 1.645 15 +2500

Using those two factors may give PGA Tour betting players a significant leg up when the tournament tees off tomorrow morning.

Comparing Chris Kirk And Rory McIlroy To Field

According to the World Golf Rankings, Chris Kirk may not be anywhere near Rory McIlroy on the golf course. According to their strokes gained around the green and tee to green, Chris Kirk may actually be the only player in the field that can compete with McIlroy.

Kirk and McIlroy are the only two players in this tournament who are in the top five of both strokes gained around the green (ARG) and from tee-to-green (T2G).

Tee-to-Green And Around the Green Leaders

SG T2G Leaders SG Tee-to-Green SG ARG Leaders SG Around Green
Rory McIlroy 1.676 Matt Kuchar 0.636
Chris Kirk 1.565 David Lingmerth 0.590
Jon Rahm 1.531 Chris Kirk 0.564
Will Zalatoris 1.470 Matt Jones 0.541
Shane Lowry 1.464 Rory McIlroy 0.496

Jon Rahm is highly rated based on his tee-to-green statistics, but legal online sportsbooks may have made a mistake making him the favorite over Rory McIlroy and the 63rd ranked golfer in the world, Chris Kirk.

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