- Rory McIlroy is the best bet for the Memorial Tournament (+1100) based on strokes gained around the green and tee-to-green.
- According to those same statistics, betting odds longshot Chris Kirk (+6600) may be the only golfer who can compete with him this weekend.
DUBLIN, Ohio – A loaded field of golfers are set to begin competing to win the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village beginning on Thursday. Online sportsbooks suggest that this may be a very close tournament, with six players with odds of +1800 or shorter.
The Memorial Tournament Odds
- Jon Rahm +1000
- Rory McIlroy +1100
- Patrick Cantlay +1600
- Cameron Smith +1800
- Collin Morikawa +1800
- Xander Schauffele +1800
Betting The Memorial Based On Relative Statistics
Last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge important course statistics were used to find the golfers with the best odds to win the tournament. The highest-rated golfer did not win, but the second and third highest-rated golfers (Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns) came in first and second.
That validation proves that there may be some insight to glean from attacking golf tournaments this way.
According to Riley Hamel of Golfweek the most important stats to pay attention to are strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained around the green.
Using each player’s last 50 rounds as a sample size, one of the favorites and one long shot are significantly ahead of every other golfer.
Highest Combined Strokes Gained From Tee-to-Green And Around The Green
|Name||Total||World Golf Rank||Odds|
Using those two factors may give PGA Tour betting players a significant leg up when the tournament tees off tomorrow morning.
Comparing Chris Kirk And Rory McIlroy To Field
According to the World Golf Rankings, Chris Kirk may not be anywhere near Rory McIlroy on the golf course. According to their strokes gained around the green and tee to green, Chris Kirk may actually be the only player in the field that can compete with McIlroy.
Kirk and McIlroy are the only two players in this tournament who are in the top five of both strokes gained around the green (ARG) and from tee-to-green (T2G).
Tee-to-Green And Around the Green Leaders
|SG T2G Leaders||SG Tee-to-Green||SG ARG Leaders||SG Around Green|
|Rory McIlroy||1.676||Matt Kuchar||0.636|
|Chris Kirk||1.565||David Lingmerth||0.590|
|Jon Rahm||1.531||Chris Kirk||0.564|
|Will Zalatoris||1.470||Matt Jones||0.541|
|Shane Lowry||1.464||Rory McIlroy||0.496|
Jon Rahm is highly rated based on his tee-to-green statistics, but legal online sportsbooks may have made a mistake making him the favorite over Rory McIlroy and the 63rd ranked golfer in the world, Chris Kirk.
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Brett is a passionate sports writer who majored in Sport Management at Florida State University. He combines his knowledge of stats with his understanding of game theory to find the best values when sports betting. Brett enjoys golfing, playing cornhole, and hanging out by the pool when he’s not locked in watching games.