- Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton declined to sign multiple nationwide efforts to regulate prediction markets like Kalshi.
- The decision is curious considering Paxton has consistently pushed for strict Texas gambling enforcement against sports betting, fantasy sports and slots.
- Federal Election Commission (FEC) records show Paxton and his PAC accepting $12,000 from Kalshi.
AUSTIN, Texas – They say actions speak louder than words, and sometimes not taking action speaks for itself. In the case of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s stance on Kalshi, his lack of action says plenty to those paying attention.
Paxton pushed for strict gambling enforcement throughout his 11-year tenure as Texas Attorney General, which was shown specifically in his legal opinions against slot-style gaming machines, fantasy sports, and legal sports betting. However, when 34 state attorney generals asked the Third Circuit Court of Appeals for state regulation of Kalshi, Paxton was not in the mix.
Another peculiar decision followed when Paxton declined to join an amicus brief that supported Maryland’s right to enforce their state gambling laws against Kalshi, which included 38 states and Washington D.C. He has since avoided other amicus briefs and most recently didn’t sign a letter from 44 state attorney generals addressed to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Paxton said on record that “Simply put, it is prohibited gambling in Texas if you bet on the performance of a participant in a sporting event and the house takes a cut.” Kalshi does “take a cut” with their transaction fees on every peer-to-peer trade, so why isn’t Paxton standing up against Kalshi?
Money Talks, And So Does President Trump
AG Paxton’s uncharacteristically lax stance against prediction markets isn’t random. FEC records show his Political Action Committee (PAC) received $5,000 from Kalshi on May 16, 2025, and Paxton himself received $7,000 from Tarek Mansour, Kalshi CEO and Founder on June 13, 2025.
Paxton is running in the Texas Senate race and is endorsed by President Donald Trump, who sides with prediction markets and their federal regulation under the CFTC. The Trump family is publicly involved in predictions, as President Trump’s son Donald J. Trump Jr. is a strategic advisor for Kalshi and an investor in Polymarket.
Paxton’s stance on Kalshi conveniently aligns with President Trump. Kalshi prices Ken Paxton with a 52% chance to win the Senate race, compared to his democratic opposition James Talarico at 48%. Election betting odds say its 50/50, but the last democrat to win election to the Texas Senate seat was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
Texas Senate Election Odds
- Ken Paxton (R) -115
- James Talarico (D) -115
While Paxton is helping Trump’s prediction market agenda, the President isn’t returning the favor outside of his public endorsement. Trump recently criticized his looks at a dinner in the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday, stating that “So, Ken Paxton, you might not like the way he dresses. And I say this—it’s so insulting to him, but I might as well say it—you might not like the way he looks…”
Trump: Ken Paxton, you might not like the way he dresses, and I say this, it’s so insulting to him, but I might as well say it. You might not like the way he looks. You might not love his television interviews. But he was the best attorney general and that speaks a lot louder… pic.twitter.com/TOu5IP31WE— Acyn (@Acyn) September 2, 2026
Trump also hasn’t helped Paxton financially yet. As of Tuesday, funding reports show $28 million spent to oppose Paxton compared to just $4.55 million to oppose Talarico.
Democratic candidate Talarico favors legal Texas sports betting since it would create tax revenue that can be used for schools and jobs throughout the state. Talarico allegedly accepted close to $60,000 from Texas Sands PAC, funded by casino mogul and Dallas Mavericks majority owner Miriam Adelson.
The outcome of the Texas Senate race expects to have implications on the future of legal sports betting and prediction markets in the U.S.’s second-most populous state. Credit to Daniel Lippman and Declan Harty for their Politico report.
