Jabari Smith Jr

  • NBA draft odds line movements have caused significant changes to Jabari Smith(-430 to -165) and Chet Holmgren(+330 to +125) over the past two weeks.
  • That odds movement may offer value for bettors on Smith because of his reported excellent workout with the Magic and Chet’s desire to play for the Thunder.
  • As Smith’s odds are now, betting on him to be the first pick would come with the second-largest payout of the last five years behind only Anthony Edwards(-125) in 2020.
  • If Jabari’s odds continue to drop, he would likely become the first overall pick with the shortest odds since 2013 when Anthony Bennet(+500) was the surprise top pick.

BROOKLYN, N.Y. – The NBA Draft is less than a week away, and oddsmakers are making payouts for presumptive favorite Jabari Smith (-165) odds larger than have been since the NBA Draft Lottery.

NBA Draft Odds Movement

Prospect June 3rd Odds June 17th Odds
Jabari Smith -430 -165
Chet Holmgren +330 +125
Paolo Banchero +1800 +1500
Jaden Ivey +12500 +8000
Shaedon Sharpe +12500 +10000

NBA sportsbooks changed the betting odds for both Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren drastically over the past two weeks. Those odds changes are surprising because it was reported that Jabari Smith had a great workout with the Orlando Magic.

Reports have also suggested that Chet Holmgren may rather play for the Oklahoma City Thunder, holders of the second overall pick, than the Magic.

Holmgren is the betting favorite at -160 to be selected second overall by the Thunder. With all the smoke around Jabri to the Magic and Chet to the Thunder, it seems that sportsbooks may have made a mistake in shortening Jabari’s first overall pick odds.

Historical Significance Of The Line Shift

Over the past five NBA Drafts, only Anthony Edwards (-125) has had shorter odds than Jabari Smith currently has to go number one.

First Overall Pick Odds – Past Five Seasons

Draft Class Top Pick Odds
2021 Cade Cunningham -8000
2020 Anthony Edwards -125
2019 Zion Williamson -2500
2018 Deandre Ayton -2500
2017 Markelle Fultz -750

With Jabari Smith’s odds trending towards getting shorter there is even a chance they become shorter than Edwards’ back in 2020.

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