Chiefs, Bills, Bengals

  • The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals have the highest win totals in 2023.
  • The New York Jets are favored to go over 9.5 wins with -130 odds.
  • The Chicago Bears have -140 odds to go over 7.5 wins.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – NFL betting sites have officially released win totals for the 2023-24 season and there are several odds to keep in mind including teams that are expected to exceed their totals, teams that could stay under, and true toss-ups.

Leading the way on legal sports betting sites with the highest set win totals are the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals.

Teams Going Over

Kansas City Chiefs Season Win Total

  • Over 11.5 -140
  • Under 11.5 +110

The Chiefs are in line to go over their projected win total and for several reasons. The first is their strength of schedule in the upcoming season which ranks dead center at 16 in the league with their opponents combining for a 147-140 record last year.

They’ve also exceeded an 11.5-win total in each of their last five seasons and are 9-1 going over their projected total set by NFL sportsbooks.

Cincinnati Bengals Season Win Total

  • Over 11.5 +105
  • Under 11.5 -135

Although the Bengals are favored to stay under their win total, this is a great opportunity for plus money being that they are immediately following the Chiefs in terms of SOS (146-140-2) and have also hit the over in their last two seasons.

Each of the last two seasons saw Cincy hitting double-digit wins as well.

Teams Staying Under

Miami Dolphins Season Win Total

  • Over 9.5 -125
  • Under 9.5 -105

9.5 is the Miami Dolphins highest preseason win total in over a decade, however, fading the over could be the play here. Miami has the second strongest schedule next season with their opponents combining for a 158-127-2 record including the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills twice, Cowboys, and Chargers. Also, the last three times that they’ve opened at a 9.5 total they’ve gone 1-2 with the over.

They have only gone over 9.5 wins four times since 2002 as well.

New York Jets Season Win Total

  • Over 9.5 -130
  • Under 9.5 +100

Although the New York Jets have some high expectations going into the new season, the even odds on the under should be very enticing. They follow Miami with the sixth most difficult schedule in 2023-24. This is their highest projected win total since the 2011 season when they had a 10-win total but stayed under. In fact, the Jets have just four 10+ win seasons since 2002 as well.

They will also need to overcome some chemistry issues with tons of new faces on both offense and defense.

Philadelphia Eagles Season Win Total

  • Over 10.5 -150
  • Under 10.5 +120

This one might come as a surprise considering the Eagles are coming off of a 14-win season in 2022-23. However, they do not usually do well against double-digit win totals. Prior to last season, the last five times that the Eagles were giving a 10+ win total for a season, they’ve stayed under.

They also have the overall toughest schedule going into next season with their opponents combining for a 161-123-4 record last year.

True Toss Ups

Chicago Bears Season Win Total

  • Over 7.5 -140
  • Under 7.5 +110

The first of the 50/50s are the Chicago Bears. The Bears made all of the right moves in the offseason including trading their number one pick for DJ Moore and the ninth pick, and signed plenty of power on defense in T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds. They did lose David Montgomery though to free agency.

The only thing holding them back would be the lack of chemistry that they have playing with each other. If their chemistry does build early on though, they could be looking at the over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Win Total

  • Over 6.5 -115
  • Under 6.5 -115

Yes, Tom Brady is officially gone from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but 6.5 wins seem too low considering they are keeping most of their key players. They still have one of the best receiving duos in the league in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, an up and coming running back in Rachaad White, and kept most of their defensive starters as well.

The only thing making them a toss-up is having Baker Mayfield under center. If Mayfield could pick up where he left off last season with the LA Rams, the over should be a no-brainer. If he plays like he did with Carolina last season, the over could certainly be in jeopardy.

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