- The Brewers are -180 to win the series and -225 in Game 1, with the Padres at +150 and +183.
- Milwaukee sends Jacob Misiorowski, baseball’s ERA leader at 1.80, while San Diego has not named a Game 1 starter.
- The Brewers (44-22) and Padres (43-23) are nearly even since the All-Star break, yet Milwaukee’s season run margin is 173 runs better.
- Brewers in five games is the shortest exact-result price at +275, and Padres in three the longest at +1000.
MILWAUKEE – The Milwaukee Brewers are -180 favorites to win their National League Division Series against the San Diego Padres, and -225 in Game 1 behind right-hander Jacob Misiorowski. First pitch is Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Misiorowski Sets The Game 1 Number
Misiorowski is 16-5 with the majors’ best ERA at 1.80 and most strikeouts at 252. His strikeout rate is near 38 percent against a league rate around 22, and left-handed hitters have managed a .114 average against him over 366 plate appearances.
San Diego has not named its starter. MLB.com lists right-hander Walker Buehler, 9-6 with a 4.63 ERA, or left-hander Robbie Ray as the likely choice. Buehler’s ERA sits 2.83 runs above Misiorowski’s and Ray’s 3.59 sits 1.79 above, the gap the -225 carries. The total is 7.
Across legal sports betting markets, the Brewers run from -220 to -225, a break-even point of about 69 percent at either end.
The Series Price Is Tighter Than Game 1
The series winner sits closer to even than Game 1 on the MLB betting board.
| Market | Brewers odds | Padres odds |
|---|---|---|
| Series winner | -180 | +150 |
| Game 1 moneyline | -225 | +183 |
The -180 implies about 64 percent for Milwaukee, about five points below the roughly 69 percent behind -225, so the market sees Game 1 as the Brewers’ widest edge and the rest of the series as closer.
The records back that. Milwaukee was 59-37 at the break and San Diego 48-48, but since then the Brewers are 44-22 with a +88 run margin and the Padres 43-23 with +84. Over 162 games it is +214 against +41, the case behind the -180. The +150 is a California sports betting price on the second-half Padres, who have won 10 of their last 12 games, counting the Wild Card sweep of the Chicago Cubs.
San Diego won the season series 4-2, taking all three August games at Petco Park by a combined 18-7 and losing two of three in Milwaukee in May. Six games are a small sample, and Milwaukee, tied with the Tampa Bay Rays for baseball’s best home record at 55-26, hosts Games 1, 2 and 5. The clubs are meeting in the postseason for the first time, with the winner one round closer to a World Series neither franchise has won.
Exact Results Carry A Heavier Margin
| Exact result | Brewers odds | Padres odds |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | +425 | +1000 |
| 3-1 | +330 | +425 |
| 3-2 | +275 | +550 |
Brewers in five at +275 is the shortest of the six prices, ahead of Brewers in four at +330, while Padres in four at +425 is shorter than Padres in five at +550. The six prices sum to an implied 112 percent, against 104 on the series winner, so the edge in the records has to be larger to survive the margin on an exact-result ticket.
Henderson Starts Game 2, Then Petco Park
Logan Henderson, 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA, starts Game 2 on Sunday at 4 p.m. ET, and MLB.com expects Michael King, 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA, for San Diego. The series moves to Petco Park for Game 3 on Tuesday, Oct. 6, at 9:30 p.m. ET.
