- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best bet to win MVP this season with +400 odds.
- Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability and availability on the court make him the best bet.
OKLAHOMA CITY – Victor Wembanyama is the favorite with +200 odds, but he is not the best bet to win Most Valuable Player (MVP) in the NBA this season. Instead, bettors should back Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win his third straight MVP with +400 odds.
Gilgeous-Alexander has +400 odds at legal sports betting sites to join Bill Russell (1961-1963), Wilt Chamberlain (1966-1968), and Larry Bird (1984-1986) as the only players ever to win the award three straight times.
He is a strong bet to do so as he continues in his prime (this will be his age 28 season) for two main reasons:
- He is a truly excellent player.
- Many of his top competitors have struggled to stay on the court. Two of the three players with the shortest odds needed exceptions to the games-played rule just to be eligible for last year’s ballot.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s excellence on the hardwood is often dismissed because of his penchant for getting to the free-throw line and, to a lesser extent, because he makes fewer highlight-reel plays than fellow superstars like Wembanyama, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
But his personal statistics and the success of his team show just how dominant he is as the top player for a great team. Over the past two seasons (144 games played), Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 31.9 points, 6.5 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game. The Oklahoma City Thunder have won 82.6% of the games that he has played in over that span (119-25).
Award eligiblity is also critical and an area where Gilgeous-Alexander thrives compared to other top options at legal NBA betting sites.
Players must play at least 20 minutes in at least 65 games to qualify to win MVP, with a few stipulations:
- They may play between 15 and 20 minutes in two games and have them count towards the 65-game minimum.
- The NBA Cup championship game counts towards the games played total even though the statistics from those games don’t count for season-long stats.
- Players also may request that the players’ union and league office offer them a waiver for games missed due to extraordinary circumstances (non-injury related).
- If a player plays at least 62 games and suffers a season-ending injury, they may apply for a waiver.
Consider the games played totals in the past three seasons for the ten players with the shortest odds to win MVP below. The numbers in parentheses are their total minutes played in that season.
Games Played (Minutes) for the 10 MVP Favorites
| Player | Odds | 2025-26 | 2024-25 | 2023-24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama (SAS) | +200 | 64 (1,866) | 46 (1,527) | 71 (2,106) |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) | +400 | 68 (2,259) | 76 (2,598) | 75 (2,553) |
| Luka Doncic (LAL) | +500 | 64 (2,289) | 50 (1,769) | 70 (2,624) |
| Nikola Jokic (DEN) | +550 | 65 (2,265) | 70 (2,571) | 79 (2,737) |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIA) | +1000 | 36 (1,039) | 67 (2,289) | 73 (2,567) |
| Anthony Edwards (MIN) | +1500 | 61 (2,137) | 79 (2,871) | 79 (2,770) |
| Jayson Tatum (BOS) | +1500 | 16 (522) | 72 (2,624) | 74 (2,645) |
| Cade Cunningham (DET) | +2500 | 64 (2,172) | 70 (2,452) | 62 (2,074) |
| Jalen Brunson (NYK) | +3000 | 74 (2,590) | 65 (2,301) | 77 (2,726) |
| Jaylen Brown (PHI) | +6500 | 71 (2,443) | 63 (2,158) | 70 (2,343) |
Gilgeous-Alexander is tied with Anthony Edwards for the lead among those players in games played over the past three seasons and is behind only Jokic, Edwards, and Jalen Brunson in minutes over that span.
One interesting stat that ties together quality of play and time spent on the court is win shares. The simplest definition for win shares is from basketball-reference.com: “Win Shares is a player statistic which attempts to divvy up credit for team success to the individuals on the team.”
In both of the past two seasons, Gilgeous-Alexander has narrowly edged out Jokic as the league leader in the advanced stat.
Win Share Leaders Over the Past Two Seasons
| Season | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (15.20) | Nikola Jokic (14.91) | Jalen Duren (10.96) |
| 2024-25 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (16.74) | Nikola Jokic (16.44) | Ivica Zubac (11.73) |
Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic have been the two runaway leaders over the past two seasons.
- Writer’s note: Jokic may well be another great bet to win MVP with +550 odds, but he comes with more age-related injury risk as he is going into his age 31 season.
NBA history also validates the correlation between winning the MVP and leading the league in win shares:
- Last 10 years: 6 of the last 10 (60%) win shares leaders won MVP
- Last 25 years: 16 of the last 25 (64%) win shares leaders won MVP
- Last 50 years: 29 of the last 50 (58%) win shares leaders won MVP
In the middle of his prime as an excellent and reliably available high minutes player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best bet to win MVP this season with +400 odds.
