- Scottie Scheffler is favored to defend his Open Championship title at +750 odds, but he just missed his first cut in 78 events and hasn’t won since January.
- Collin Morikawa (+2800) and Tom Kim (+4500) are both strong course fits, although history works against them for success at Royal Birkdale.
- Rory McIlroy is a wildcard at +800 odds with an overpowering approach to a course that relies more on precision.
SOUTHPORT, England – The 2026 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale features plenty of intriguing storylines and contending players. Scottie Scheffler is the Open Championship betting favorite after hoisting the Claret Jug in 2025, but are his +750 odds overpriced?
The Open Championship Odds
- Scottie Scheffler +750
- Rory McIlroy +800
- Matt Fitzpatrick +1600
- Tommy Fleetwood +1600
- Jon Rahm +2500
- Xander Schauffele +2500
- Chris Gotterup +2800
- Collin Morikawa +2800
- Wyndham Clark +2800
- Justin Rose +3000
- Robert MacIntyre +3000
- Cameron Young +3500
- Ludvig Aberg +3500
- Tyrrell Hatton +3500
- Viktor Hovland +3500
- Russell Henley +4500
- Tom Kim +4500
- Patrick Reed +5000
- Sam Burns +5000
- Si Woo Kim +5000
A Scheffler win at +750 would make him the first back-to-back Open champion since Padraig Harrington did it in 2007-08. He would be the first American to do it since Tiger Woods in 2005-06, so it’s safe to say Scottie isn’t a lock for another win across the pond.
The World No. 1 used to have favored odds floating between +200 and +500 nearly every tournament, but Scheffler hasn’t won since his season debut at the American Express 13 events ago. He just missed the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open, snapping a 78-event streak of made cuts heading into the final major of the season.
Scottie hasn’t missed back-to-back cuts since 2021, when he missed the weekend at the American Express and Farmers Insurance Open as the 83rd ranked player in the world. Joe Biden was just inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States the last time Scheffler missed back-to-back cuts.
The current World No. 1 has never played Royal Birkdale and has juicy +550 legal sports betting odds to miss the cut again.
Scottie Scheffler Open Championship Cut Odds
- Make -1000
- Miss +550
Discussing Scheffler to miss the cut seems foolish, but he only hit 11 of 26 fairways at The Renaissance and lost almost two strokes on approach. Both driving accuracy and approach are necessary skills for avoiding punishment at Birkdale, so the +550 aren’t impossible in Scheffler’s current form. Then again, he could just win the whole thing because he’s Scottie Scheffler.
Best Open Championship Course Fit: Collin Morikawa (+2800)
Collin Morikawa’s game is well suited for success at Royal Birkdale, a course that demands accuracy far more than what we saw last week at The Renaissance Club. Morikawa ranks inside the top 5 for driving accuracy (5) and strokes gained: approach-the-green (2), an enticing dual-profile at a course with over 100 bunkers.
He’s won The Open Championship (2021 at Royal St. George’s) before and made the cut at all three majors this season. However, Morikawa is feast or famine at Open Championships in his career.
He made the cut just twice across five starts, but he won and finished T-16 in those two weekend appearances. The course fit, major pedigree, and current form make him too good to pass up at PGA Tour betting sites with +2800 odds.
Could Tom Kim Go Back-To-Back?
Tom Kim notched his first win since 2023 with a Genesis Scottish Open victory on Sunday. Now, he’s +4500 to win The Open Championship and be the second player to ever win the Scottish Open and The Open Championship back-to-back (Phil Mickelson, 2013).
Kim possesses the necessary tools to get it done at Royal Birkdale, especially with his fifth-best strokes gained: approach-the-green stat. Unlike Morikawa, this bet has more to do with momentum than statistical reliability, because Tom Kim is peaking heading into the final major of the season.
Kim finished runner-up at the 2023 Open Championship and finished top 20 in all five of his Scottish Open appearances, proving his game translates to links golf and Sunday’s win was no fluke. His +4500 odds are pricing in the expected hangover, but he gets a great price to join exclusive company with a win at Royal Birkdale.
Can Rory McIlroy Overpower Royal Birkdale?
Rory McIlroy will be the true test to the idea that Royal Birkdale requires precision and punishes bombers. He’s not close to top 10 in either driver accuracy (104) or strokes gained: approach the green (30), but he’s expected to go for it with the driver when other players lay back on certain holes.
In his last six Opens, Rory finished inside the top 10 in half of them and was 46th or worse in the other half. His +780 odds are more of a talent bet considering his infrequent play and awkward course fit.
At the Genesis Scottish Open, we highlighted Min Woo Lee (2), Rory McIlroy (T-7), and Kurt Kitayama (T-44) as good course fits at The Renaissance Club. For The Open Championship, the best fit is Collin Morikawa at +2800 odds.
