Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights

  • The fifth games of the Stanley Cup Playoffs are on the docket for Thursday and feature both the Tampa Bay Lightning as well as the Winnipeg Jets being down 3-1 in the series.
  • Their histories against their opponents in both the regular season and postseason bodes well for the totals.
  • At least one team has come back from a 3-1 deficit in three out of the last four years.

TORONTO – The NHL Stanley Cup Playoff continue Thursday, with three teams on the slate. While the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils sit with the series tied 2-2, the stakes are highest in the other games that feature a 3-1 lead.

While in most sports a 3-1 deficit is near impossible to overcome, the NHL has seen at least one team do so in three out of the last four years. With the expectation that the Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets will play their hardest while their back is against the walls, those are the games to target on legal sportsbooks.

Teams Down 3-1 in Series Odds

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs

Team Money Line Puck Line Total
Tampa Bay Lightning (+135) +1.5 (-210) O 6.5 (-115)
Maple Leafs (-160) -1.5 (+175) U 6.5 (-105)

Winnipeg Jets @ Vegas Golden Knights

Team Money Line Puck Line Total
Winnipeg Jets (+165) +1.5 (-210) O 5.5 (-125)
Vegas Golden Knights (-195) -1.5 (+150) U 5.5 (+105)

Lightning Look to Bounce Back from Skid

After the Lightning looked dominant in the opening game of the series, the team has largely faltered since then and would go on to lose the next three games to the Maple Leafs. While this may seem to be a surefire sign that the Maple Leafs money line at -160 is a great play, it is tough to count out the Lightning and their storied championship pedigree.

In fact, the Maple Leafs were the victim of a 3-1 comeback just two years ago in the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs by the Montreal Canadiens. With each team being quite difficult to predict, we turn to perhaps the biggest and most consistent prop available: the total.

The Maple Leafs and Lightning are among the best offenses in the NHL, and their recent bouts perfectly illustrate why the best game prop available is the over of 6.5 at -115 odds. Throughout the first four games of this series as well as their final regular season matchup, the over is a perfect 5-0.

Many of these games soared over the total as well, with three out of five games totaling nine or more goals. Their last matchup in last year’s playoffs saw much of the same, with five out of the seven games in the series hitting the over.

Following Similar Logic

While the Winnipeg Jets and Vegas Golden Knights are not exactly known for their star power and breakneck offensive efficiency like the aforementioned teams are, their recent matchups show a similar conclusion.

During this series, the over has gone a perfect 4-0 as well as five times in their last five with their December matchup totaling a massive 11 goals. In fact, since 2021 the over has happened in eight out of the 10 games between these two teams.

Also, the series has questionably been given a total of five and a half in every game despite the regular season norm being six or more consistently in the last two years. With -125 odds on legal betting sites, this bet presents a great value because of the historic trends pointing all the way towards the over.

Overall, there are few bets that have as much historical backing as the over for these two games. With both the Jets and Lightning also staring into the 3-1 abyss, they will have to fight relentlessly to stay alive, which may mean a riskier style of play that will increase the number of goals each team scores. A parlay combining both of these sports +237 odds as well, meaning there is value to be had in betting either both or just one total.

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