- The total is 59 with the under at -110, and USC is a 9.5-point favorite and -390 on the moneyline.
- Washington’s defense allows 16.8 points a game and 4.6 yards per play, and opponents convert 29 percent of their third downs.
- USC scored a season-low 27 points in its 41-27 loss to the Oregon Ducks, going 2 for 11 on third down.
- USC receiver Corey Simms is out and Trent Mosley, who missed two games with a knee injury, is questionable.
LOS ANGELES – The under is the best bet in Saturday night’s Washington-USC game at the Coliseum, where the Washington Huskies and No. 18 USC Trojans, both off their first losses of the season, meet with a total of 59 and USC a 9.5-point favorite.
Washington’s Defense Has Held Passers To 6.4 Per Attempt
The Huskies have allowed 67 points in four games. Opponents are 15 of 52 on third down, including Washington State’s 0 for 11 in the opener, and average 3.2 yards per rush and 6.4 per pass attempt.
The passing number is the collision with the total. Jayden Maiava leads the nation with 1,499 passing yards at 9.5 per attempt, so USC’s passing game meets a defense that has held passers about three yards under his average.
The schedule is the caveat. Washington State, Utah State and FCS Eastern Washington supplied three of the four opponents, and the Minnesota Golden Gophers scored 27 in the one Big Ten test, 21 of them in the first half.
USC’s Games Average 66 Points, Washington’s 45
Four of USC’s five games have topped 59 combined points, and all five average 66.2. Washington’s four average 44.8, and only the 64-point rout of Eastern Washington cleared 59. The midpoint of those averages is 55.5, three and a half points under the 59 on the legal sports betting board, and that gap is the cushion for the under.
| Market | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| USC -9.5 | -115 | 53.5% |
| Washington +9.5 | -105 | 51.2% |
| Over 59 | -110 | 52.4% |
| Under 59 | -110 | 52.4% |
| USC moneyline | -390 | 79.6% |
| Washington moneyline | +295 | 25.3% |
On the legal college football betting board the side is the harder call. USC is 1-4 against the spread and Washington is 0-4, including the outright loss to Minnesota as a double-digit favorite, so neither team has been a reliable cover and the total is the cleaner read.
USC Stalled On Third Down Without Two Receivers
USC gained 446 yards against Oregon but averaged 5.9 per play, a full yard below its 6.9 season average. The Trojans converted 2 of 11 third downs after going 30 of 46 in their first four games, and they scored 27 after putting up at least 39 in each of those. Receiver Corey Simms was out and freshman Trent Mosley missed his second straight game.
The Big Ten’s initial availability report for Washington lists Simms as out and Mosley as questionable. Mosley has 13 catches for 255 yards and four touchdowns in three games, 19.6 a catch, the explosive element a thinner room has to replace with sustained drives against a defense that allows 29 percent on third down.
The room is thin, not empty. Maiava still threw for 326 yards against Oregon, freshman Kayden Dixon-Wyatt leads USC with 25 catches for 372 yards, and tight end Mark Bowman, second with 21 catches, is also questionable.
Maiava And USC’s Defense Are The Risk
USC’s defense has allowed 30, 35 and 41 points in its last three games, which gives a Washington offense averaging 6.2 yards per play room to score. USC’s last game, the Oregon-USC props shootout, carried a 61.5 total and finished with 68 points.
If Washington reaches the 24 it has scored twice against FBS opponents, USC needs 36 to clear 59, a mark it has hit in four of five games. The Under needs the Oregon game, not USC’s first four, to be the template. The Big Ten’s final availability report, due two hours before the 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff, will carry Mosley’s last status.
