NFL Public Betting Splits

  • The New England Patriots are seeing 91% of the money on 87% of the bets on the spread against the Carolina Panthers.
  • The Arizona Cardinals have reverse line movement, becoming underdogs after getting most of the betting action.
  • The Dallas Cowboys are getting 75% of the spread’s bets and 86% of the money against the Denver Broncos.

LAS VEGAS – The term “fade the public” is often overused in sports betting, but it’s a saying for a reason. Multiple games in Week 9 of the NFL season have good spots where fading the public could be beneficial.

New England Patriots (-3.5) Vs. Carolina Panthers

The New England Patriots are getting a lot of action on legal sports betting sites against the Carolina Panthers, and it may be an overreaction to their performance last week. The same overreaction led to the New York Jets getting a lot of public backing on TNF and the team ended up not covering the spread.

Patriots vs Panthers Spread Odds

  • New England Patriots -3.5 -110
  • Carolina Panthers +3.5 -110

New England is holding 91% of the handle on 87% of the bets on the spread this Sunday, a significant amount for a team that hasn’t been all that impressive.

Their win over the Chargers may be resulting in recency bias for many bettors.

Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) Vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Arizona Cardinals are seeing reverse line movement against the San Francisco 49ers. Despite holding 87% of the bets and 80% of the money, NFL betting sites have moved the Cards from -1 to +1.5 on the spread.

49ers vs Cardinals Spread

  • Arizona Cardinals +1.5 -110
  • San Francisco 49ers -1.5 -110

The first warning sign for this game is that either side is getting 80%+ of the action despite it being a 1.5-point spread, the second is that the team getting the action is having their odds get longer.

This game screams stay away or at the very least, fade the Cardinals.

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) Vs. Denver Broncos

Considering the Dallas Cowboys are the only undefeated ATS team in the NFL, it’s not too surprising to find them getting a lot of public backing against the Denver Broncos in Week 9, regardless of the large spread.

Cowboys vs Broncos Spread

  • Dallas Cowboys -10.5 -110
  • Denver Broncos +10.5 -110

It’s natural to think that the Cowboys will have to return to Earth at some point, but it’s easily as plausible that it’s smart to ride the wave until it crashes.

Ultimately, the decision is up to the individual, but online sportsbooks will likely want to get a loss on the Cowboys ATS record sooner, rather than later.

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