- The New England Patriots are seeing roughly 66% of the total bets and money behind them.
- Over 95% of the money is backing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline, a similar number is seen for the Tennessee Titans’ as well.
LAS VEGAS – When it comes to betting on the NFL, there is one bit of advice that stands above the rest: fading the public.
In short, this is when bettors note which side of the line other bettors are taking and doing the opposite. While it isn’t always the best to fade the public, oftentimes, there are a few stipulations to look for that can help.
First off, it is all about where the money lands, not the number of bets. While hundreds of square (inexperienced) bettors may throw a few dollars on a game, the sharps (professional gamblers) are the ones to follow.
They have the most money invested and seeing the relationship between the team’s number of bets placed in their favor versus the team’s total money placed in their favor goes a long way.
Top NFL Teams To Fade In Week 3
Applying the fading the public mindset should happen when a strong majority of the money and bets placed are on one side of the line.
Sportsbooks (generally) don’t lose money through the course of the NFL season, so when an NFL betting follower sees the heavy action, run against it and pair up with the house instead.
New England Patriots
Look, it should never be advised to bet against a Belichick-led team. They are 14-6 in their last 20 games straight up but have struggled a bit more than people think.
With a 3-6 ATS record over their last nine, the Patriots haven’t been as dominant in years past. These two teams have only met three times in the last nine years, so any matchup trends cannot be focused on.
Instead, following the money is and fading the public seems like the easy play.
At -6.5, around two-thirds of the money and the bet total is on the Patriots. With this, taking the Jon Gruden-led Raiders with a near-touchdown advantage could be the most obvious play NFL betting fans overlooked.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Moving from Belichick to Brady, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are seeing a heavy amount of the action. Being on the road, it does add a challenge; however, they are taking on a Denver Broncos team that is without their best wide receiver in Courtland Sutton and potential future quarterback in Drew Lock.
The Bucs are -235 on the moneyline and bettors are locked in.
With 80% of the bets and over 95% of the money in their favor, this couldn’t be more of a perfect scenario to fade the public.
While the +210 odds on the Broncos don’t seem too exciting, live betting action on the home team may be a bettors’ best bet.
Another team that is favored on the road is the Tennessee Titans. Going against the struggling Minnesota Vikings, the -145 odds on the Titans is one many are following.
Tennessee is getting a smaller number of bets than a few on this list (62%) but the money total is up to 94%.
The legal sportsbooks were beaten hard last week in the NFL, so don’t be surprised if there is a slight regression from the bettors’ winnings.
The Vikings are +130 on the moneyline, are at home, and are looking to get their first win. All eyes point to the home team underdog taking the W.
CIN Vs. PHI
Instead of the spread or moneyline, NFL bettors can also fade the public on the over-under.
In this Bengals and Eagles game, the over-under has increased from 45.5 points to 46.5 points and the over is still being rammed.
With 87% of the bets on the over and 97% of the money on the over, this seems like the ideal play.
Both teams have been struggling and both offensive lines are even worse; however, the money is telling bettors to do the opposite.
There is no set strategy for fading the public and many other NFL games can be taken as well. Without any set science behind fading the public, it must be mixed with a “gut feeling” approach as well.
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After spending time scouting college basketball for Florida State University under Leonard Hamilton and the University of Alabama under Anthony Grant, Michael started writing focused on NBA content. A graduate of both schools, he now covers legal sports betting bills, sports betting revenue data, tennis betting odds, and sportsbook reviews. Michael likes to play basketball, hike, and kayak when not glued to the TV watching midlevel tennis matches.