- The Spurs are -210 favorites to beat the Knicks in the NBA Finals, while New York has +170 odds.
- The Knicks have not won a title since 1983 and did not meet the criteria for the 40-20 rule, which has predicted over 90% of champions since 1980.
- The Spurs are looking to become just the seventh team in the history of the NBA to win the Finals after missing the playoffs the season before.
SAN ANTONIO – The stage is set for the NBA Finals with Game 1 between the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs tipping off Wednesday night at 8:30 p.m. EST as both teams look to rewrite history and defy the odds.
2026 NBA Finals Series Odds
| New York Knicks (+170) | San Antonio Spurs (-210) |
|---|
The Spurs are solid favorites to win the title at legal sports betting sites with -210 odds to win the series outright, while the Knicks are listed at +170.
One huge historical trend that the Spurs have on their side is legendary coach Phil Jackson’s 40-20 rule, stating that the team to win the Finals must have won 40 regular season games before accruing 20 losses. While it is obviously not a guarantee, the rule has withstood the test of time, with just four exceptions since 1980 and a staggering 91.4% success rate.
Only three teams reached that threshold this season (Spurs, Thunder, and Pistons) and the Knicks were not one of them.
On the other hand, just 16 teams in the history of the NBA have reached the NBA Finals after missing the playoffs the season prior and of those 16, just six would ultimately win the title. The Spurs finished 34-48 last season, missing the postseason.
Exact Series Outcome Odds
| Spurs Win 4-0 (+650) | Spurs Win 4-1 (+340) | Spurs Win 4-2 (+500) | Spurs Win 4-3 (+320) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks Win 4-0 (+2000) | Knicks Win 4-1 (+1300) | Knicks Win 4-2 (+500) | Knicks Win 4-3 (+750) |
The most likely outcome according to the odds is the Spurs to win in seven games at +320, followed closely by Spurs in 5 at +340.
The shortest odds for the series to go in the Knicks’ favor is for them to win in six games with a closeout game at Madison Square Garden, which would mark their first title since 1983.
In the past 10 seasons, there has been just one sweep, three five game series, four six game series, and two seven game series in the NBA Finals.
2026 NBA Finals Game 1 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks | +5.0 (-115) | +160 | O 218.5 (-110) |
| Spurs | -5.0 (-105) | -185 | U 218.5 (-110) |
The Spurs are five point favorites in Game 1 at Texas sports betting sites, which will play a pivotal role in the outcome of the series.
Over 77% of teams who won Game 1 in any series in NBA Playoff history have gone on to win their series, and while that number drops to 69.6% in the Finals, it is still a very solid indicator of future success.
The Thunder were able to overcome a Game 1 loss last season, but had the luxury of home court advantage and still needed seven games to take down the Pacers.
