- Senate Bill 430 in Ohio takes a different approach to block prediction markets than other states.
- The bill anticipates that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of the prediction markets, opening the door for Ohio to tax these companies offering sports-related event contracts.
- Iowa is taking a similar approach with their SF 2470 bill that would require prediction markets to pay a $20 million fee for a state license.
COLUMBUS, Ohio – Ohio’s prediction market bill signals a new way for states to combat the prediction market infestation. Senate Bill 430 establishes a licensing and regulation framework that would make prediction market companies pay taxes like Ohio sports betting sites do.
Ohio has proven with their $5 million fine on Kalshi that they want to block prediction markets. But, Senator Bill DeMora’s SB 430 implements a backup plan if the courts ultimately side with prediction markets.
Under Senate Bill 430, “using a prediction market to trade event contracts on sporting events constitutes sports gaming subject to regulation in this state.” After Ohio sportsbooks made over $1 billion in revenue for 2025, Ohio doesn’t want prediction markets undercutting their sportsbook profits without paying up.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission made it clear in their lawsuit against Wisconsin that states that try to ban prediction markets will be sued. Ohio, as well as Iowa, are taking an approach of regulation instead of resistance.
Iowa Also Prioritizing Regulation Over Resistance
The same day that Ohio’s SB 430 was filed, Iowa Senate File 2470 would require prediction markets to have a permit and be taxed to operate in the state. The exact bill reads “event-driven contracts traded on dedicated contract markets by requiring a permit to conduct business in the state, imposing a tax on adjusted revenues or amounts traded, making adjustments to individual and corporate income taxes, providing for fees, and including contingent effective date, applicability, and retroactive applicability provisions.”
The bill would also require platforms to pay a $20 million licensing fee to be treated like a legal sports betting operator in the state. Senators passed the bill 45-1, becoming the first legislative branch to pass a bill that would license and regulate predictions.
