- Alexander Zverev has -200 odds to win the French Open ahead of Friday’s semifinals.
- Zverev is -400 against Jakub Mensik to advance to the final, but with how poorly sportsbooks have priced the French thus far, these odds may be inflated as the biggest name on the board.
- Fatigue factors into Matteo Arnaldi’s +195 odds against Flavio Cobolli, who could win the entire tournament with +450 odds.
PARIS – Ahead of the semifinals of the Men’s French Open starting on Friday, the story isn’t about who’s favored to win, it’s about how badly sportsbooks misjudged this tournament and if there’s more value on the table. Jannik Sinner’s historic upset as the -325 favorite changed everything, but now the second-favorite Alexander Zverev went from +1200 to -200 odds as the last man standing with experience.
Men’s French Open Futures Odds
- Alexander Zverev -200
- Flavio Cobolli +450
- Jakub Mensik +650
- Matteo Arnaldi +1200
A $100 pre-tournament bet on any of the remaining players would’ve paid out massively, showcasing a rare miss from tennis betting sites at a Grand Slam. Zverev is the commanding favorite after losing just one set thus far, but he must get through Jakub Mensik to advance to the French Open final.
Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Betting Lines
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Mensik | +5.0 (-110) | +300 | O38.5 (-110) |
| Alexander Zverev | -5.0 (-120) | -400 | U38.5 (-120) |
Perhaps the market is overcorrecting towards Zverev (-400) as the strongest player remaining, but Mensik has run through a gauntlet to get to the semifinals. As the No. 27 ranked player in the world, Mensik knocked off No. 8 Alex de Minaur, No. 11 Andrey Rublev, and No. 28 Joao Fonseca ahead of his biggest test against Zverev with +300 odds to add another upset.
Zverev claimed a 3-0 victory in their lone head-to-head matchup earlier this year in Madrid. As for the rest of the field, Flavio Cobolli is the only player with a win against Zverev, but he must first defeat his Italian counterpart in Matteo Arnaldi with -240 legal sports betting odds.
Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Betting Lines
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Arnaldi | +4.5 (-115) | +195 | O38.5 (-115) |
| Flavio Cobolli | -4.5 (-115) | -240 | U38.5 (-115) |
Matteo Arnaldi has required the most on-court time to reach a major semifinal since the ATP Tour began tracking the stat in 1991. That fatigue factors into his +195 underdog odds at French Open betting sites, but it’s the first all-Italian semifinal matchup in Grand Slam history.
No. 14 ranked Cobolli is the best underdog bet to win the French Open at +450 odds after dropping just two sets in five matches at Roland Garros. With tennis sportsbooks mispricing the tournament thus far, there could be value on fading the favored Zverev for one of the challengers.
