- The Valkyries are -4.5 (-105) in the first half of Game 3, against -8 (-110) for the full game.
- Golden State’s net rating before halftime was +17.3, best in the league, and +21.4 in home games against +9.4 overall.
- Golden State led Game 1 by 27 at halftime and trailed Game 2 by 5, a net 22-point first-half edge.
- Paige Bueckers over 18.5 points (-120) is the secondary play after her 21-point opener on 9-of-10 from the field.
SAN FRANCISCO – The best bet in Friday’s deciding Game 3 is the Golden State Valkyries first half at -4.5 points (-105) against the Dallas Wings, with the series tied 1-1.
Golden State’s Margin Is Front-Loaded
No team was better before halftime this regular season than the Valkyries, whose +17.3 net rating in first halves sat clear of the next-best +12.9 points. In home games the figure was +21.4 points. Net rating is points per 100 possessions, and at the Valkyries’ league-slowest pace of 74.5 possessions per game, +21.4 works out to roughly eight points a half. The first-half line at California sports betting sites asks for 4.5 of them.
The full game is a thinner case. Golden State sits first in the league at +9.4 for the season, so the edge roughly halves once the second half is counted. The Wings, at +5.3 and sixth in the league, are a real opponent, and a season gap worth about three points a game means the -8 leans on home court and the Game 1 blowout. The half leans on the split where Golden State separates from the league.
Betting Odds For Valkyries/Wings Game 3
Golden State is the favorite in every version of the game on the legal sports betting board.
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Valkyries first-half spread | -4.5 (-105) |
| Wings first-half spread | +4.5 (-115) |
| Valkyries first-half moneyline | -230 |
| Wings first-half moneyline | +190 |
| First-half total | 76.5 (-110 each side) |
| Valkyries full-game spread | -8 (-110) |
| Wings full-game spread | +8 (-110) |
| Valkyries moneyline | -350 |
| Wings moneyline | +275 |
| Full-game total | 159.5 (-110 each side) |
Game 1 Set The Template, Game 2 Showed The Risk
The second quarter of Game 1 went to the Valkyries 37-11. They were up 58-31 at the break and won 104-80 with 18 threes on 36 attempts. A 50 percent night from deep against a 34.4 percent season rate is not a baseline, and the Valkyries lead the league with 30.3 three-point attempts a game. That volume cuts both ways, because a cold first quarter sinks the half faster than it sinks the game.
Game 2 showed the cold version. Dallas won the second quarter 27-19 and led 50-45 at the half, though Golden State led 74-72 after three quarters. Arike Ogunbowale finished with a playoff-record 45 points, including the tying three with 4.1 seconds left in regulation, and the Wings won 108-100 in overtime despite a career-high 36 from Golden State’s Gabby Williams. Across the two first halves, the Valkyries still lead by 22 points.
Bueckers Over 18.5 Is The Secondary Play
Paige Bueckers’ points total sits at 18.5 on the WNBA betting board, 2.4 points under her 20.9 regular-season average, according to Basketball Reference. Her two playoff games brought both extremes against the league’s best defense, a 100.6 defensive rating. She went 9-of-10 for 21 points in the opener and 3-of-13 for 10 in Game 2.
She has taken 23 shots in two games, 11.5 a night against 15.6 in the regular season, and an elimination game is where Dallas needs that volume back. The risk is another Game 2.
