Arnold Palmer Invitational

  • When betting on the Arnold Palmer Invitational, strokes gained tee-to-green statistics have proven historically to be very important.
  • Some of the best bets to finish top ten at Bay Hill include Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, but it is Matthieu Pavon with +425 T10 odds who is the top overall value

ORLANDO, Fla. – The Arnold Palmer Invitational has been played at Bay Hill Club and Lodge since 1979, with the most recent iteration of the event in 2023 giving betters an edge when looking at top ten betting odds for the event before the golfers tee off tomorrow.

Top Ten Odds For The Arnold Palmer Invitational

  • Scottie Scheffler -165
  • Rory McIlroy -125
  • Viktor Hovland +120
  • Xander Schauffele +125
  • Jordan Spieth +130
  • Ludvig Aberg +130
  • Patrick Cantlay +130
  • Collin Morikawa +150
  • Sam Burns +170
  • Cameron Young +180
  • Justin Thomas +180
  • Max Homa +180
  • Tommy Fleetwood +180

The specific edge to use at legal sports betting sites is to bet on players who dominate the field in strokes gained tee-to-green statistics to finish in the top ten.

Arnold Palmer Betting Edge: T2G Dominance

Tee-to-green dominance was very important at Bay Hill last year according to 2023 Arnold Palmer stats as eight of the 13 golfers who finished T10 or better were top ten in strokes gained T2G.

Using PGA Tour T2G stats from this season, we can see that the top ten golfers in this field in the SG: T2G category this season may not be valued properly at Bovada.

The top ten golfers this season in the Arnold Palmer Invitational in SG T2G stats and their top ten odds at Bovada are listed below.

Rank PLAYER SG T2G T10 Odds
1 Scottie Scheffler 2.44 -165
2 Xander Schauffele 1.864 +125
3 Matthieu Pavon 1.384 +425
4 Jake Knapp 1.353 +300
5 Justin Thomas 1.342 +180
6 Chris Kirk 1.32 +300
7 Jason Day 1.185 +225
8 Jordan Spieth 1.097 +130
9 Collin Morikawa 1.074 +150
10 Adam Scott 1.063 +300

Scottie Scheffler averaging more than 30% more strokes gained from tee-to-green per round than second-place Xander Schauffele certainly makes him one of the best bets to finish top ten at Bay Hill, but it is Matthieu Pavon with +425 odds that is likely the best top ten bet for the event.

Betting Spotlight: Matthieu Pavon at the Arnold Palmer

Matthieu Pavon had played in four PGA tournaments prior to 2024, but he has taken the tour by storm this season.

He has yet to miss a cut (the API is a no-cut event so this will continue) and he has finished T7 or better in three of his five starts this season. In that small sample size, Pavon has proven to be great in multiple aspects.

Pavon has dominated tee-to-green, as evidenced by 1.384 strokes gained per round ranking third heading into the tournament. But, that is not the only way he is playing well.

Matthieu Pavon has also gained at least three strokes putting in each event this season as well. He ranks first among golfers in this tournament in strokes gained with the flat stick.

With a well-rounded game and the long +425 odds to finish top ten, Matthieu Pavon is the best bet at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at legal PGA Tour betting sites.

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