Australian Open Women’s Final Betting: Sabalenka vs. Keys

• Aryna Sabalenka is a heavy favorite (-320 odds) over American Madison Keys in the 2025 Australian Open final.
• With a 4-1 record against Keys, Sabalenka has -240 odds to win Set 1 and is projected to win the match by 4.5 games.
• Potential longshot bets on the Australian Open final could hit depending on how the game plays out.

MELBOURNE – As Aryna Sabalenka prepares to face Madison Keys in the 2025 Australian Open final, the stage is set for an electrifying showdown. Sabalenka is the heavy favorite (-320), with her dominant run in Australia continuing her World Number 1 status.

However, Keys (+265) enters with momentum after defeating world No. 2 Iga Swiatek in a dramatic semifinal.

Australian Open Final Betting Odds – Women’s

Keys’ +265 moneyline odds reflect her underdog status, but her +4.5 (-125) game spread offers more cautious bettors a reasonable path. Meanwhile, the total games line at 21.5 hints at a competitive match, even if Sabalenka is the tennis betting favorite to win in straight sets.

If you followed our Best Americans to Bet on the Australian Open feature, you could already be holding a Keys +6600 outright ticket. For those holding, the time to hedge is now. Sabalenka’s three-peat aspirations are supported by her impeccable Australian Open record, but Keys’ fearless performance in high-pressure situations makes her a dangerous underdog.

If you’re not holding that ticket, it’s a tough final to handicap. Either way, whether you’re wagering on the moneyline or taking a longshot flyer on an Australian Open bet, the 2025 final promises to be a thrilling end to the tournament.

Longshot Odds Worth a Look

• Sabalenka to win 1st set 6-3 or 6-4, hit 10+ aces, and win 2-1 (+15000): Sabalenka’s firepower and history of slow starts make this a thrilling but highly unlikely option. Leading the WTA in aces in 2024, she hasn’t hit over three in a single match this tournament.
• Sabalenka to win every set 7-6 (+10000): A double tiebreak thriller? Unlikely, but worth a flyer for those expecting a tense final. Keys did lose to Sabalenka 6-0, 6-7, 6-7 at the 2023 US Open women’s semifinal though, so who knows?
• Keys to win in straight sets & serve 10+ aces (+8000): With a career-high ace tally already under her belt this tournament, Keys has the tools to execute this, though the straight-sets win against Sabalenka feels like a tall order.
• Keys to win & serve least double faults (+700): Keys has been remarkably consistent on serve, giving this bet some realistic value. Also, it gives her a one-set backing, which is needed since Sabalenka is -900 to win a set.

Their Roads To The Final

Keys’ semifinal win over Swiatek was nothing short of legendary. After saving match point and rallying from a set down, she secured a 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 victory, marking her longest career win streak at 11 matches. Seven of those wins have come in three sets, a testament to her resilience.

Aryna Sabalenka continues her dominance in Melbourne, extending her Australian Open win streak to 20 matches. The Belarusian is on the cusp of history, aiming to become the sixth woman to win three consecutive Australian Open titles. Her firepower has been on full display, though her serve has faced challenges, with 16 breaks already conceded during the tournament.

The legal sports betting stakes couldn’t be higher for Sabalenka, who leads the head-to-head series 4-1. Her track record against opponents outside the top 10 in Grand Slam finals (16-2) adds further weight to her favorite status.

What’s your pick for the final? Will Sabalenka complete her three-peat, or can Keys pull off one of the greatest upsets in Australian Open history?

News tags: Aryna Sabalenka | Australian Open | Iga Swiatek | Madison Keys | tennis | WTA