- Examining previous Super Bowl trends can be a useful tool when determining what bets to place.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have an elite offense, but it’s their defense that shines in our trend analysis.
- The San Francisco 49ers have a lot of trends in their favor, and it’ll be up to Patrick Mahomes to break those trends.
MIAMI – Trend analysis can be a fun and profitable endeavor when breaking down a Super Bowl matchup and betting lines. After all, many situations in the NFL have already occurred, and it can be useful to look at historical precedents.
At LegalSportsBetting, our team analyzed some of the trends that may have predictive effects on Super Bowl 54. Surprisingly, as this looks to be a very even game, the trends offer more incentive to back the Niners than the Chiefs.
Trends That Favor The Kansas City Chiefs
- Teams with more points on the season are 6-12 over the last 18 Super Bowls.
- Teams with more rushing yards on the season are 6-12 over the last 18 Super Bowls.
- Teams with fewer points allowed on the season are 32-15 over the last 47 Super Bowls.
These trends are honestly surprising on multiple levels. On level one, most people would expect the Chiefs to be the higher scoring offense, and on level two, most people would expect the higher scoring offense to win Super Bowls more often. But in fact, neither of those things are true.
The 49ers outscored the Chiefs during the regular season, and the team that does that has a 33% win-rate over the last 18 Super Bowls.
In the same time frame, the regular-season leaders in rushing have the same record. This seems to demonstrate the lack of ability offensive play has to actually lead a team to the biggest win of the season.
A final shocking trend is that the Chiefs have allowed fewer points than the 49ers over the course of the season in a surprising inversion of how the teams are generally discussed. This trend has a significant correlation with winning it all – over 66% of the time the team with fewer points allowed wins the game.
It’s true what they say, defense wins championships. The big question is if these stats are truly representative of the quality of the Chiefs defense – public opinion would likely say no.
Trends That Favor The San Francisco 49ers
- Teams with more yards on the season are 15-4 over the last 19 Super Bowls.
- Teams with more passing yards on the season are 8-16 over the last 24 Super Bowls.
- Teams with fewer sacks allowed on the season are 15-24 over the last 39 Super Bowls.
- Teams with fewer yards allowed on the season are 24-12 over the last 36 Super Bowls.
- Teams with more sacks on the season are 18-11 over the last 29 Super Bowls.
- Teams with fewer passing yards allowed on the season are 25-10 over the last 35 Super Bowls.
- Teams with fewer rushing yards allowed on the season are 18-13 over the last 31 Super Bowls.
These trends certainly tell the story of a team that has a lot going for it. The Niners have put up more overall yards while allowing fewer yards and have put up more sacks while allowing fewer sacks.
Sometimes football is simple – do the thing better than you let it be done to you – and the Niners are adept at reducing a dynamic game to that simple, brutal equation, and grinding opponents into dust.
As discussed during the Chiefs section, many offensive statistics have a relatively negative correlation with winning the Super Bowl. The Niners have less passing yards, but teams with less passing yards are 16-8 in the last 24 Super Bowls.
And once again, it is clear that defense wins championships – teams with fewer passing yards allowed have a 71% win-rate over the last 35 Super Bowls, and teams with fewer rushing yards allowed are 18-13 over the last 31 iterations of the big game.
Overall, these trends seem to favor the San Francisco 49ers. Chiefs’ bettors will be looking to the genius of Patrick Mahomes to buck the trends that say that offense can’t win the big one – and Mahomes might just be up to the task:
Mahomes will play in his first #SuperBowl this Sunday, but he's already posting the best numbers of the Super Bowl 𝙚𝙧𝙖
He has the most pass YPG (302.9), best TD-INT ratio (87-18) & highest passer rating (109.6) of any QB w/ 1,000+ pass att in the Super Bowl era, incl playoffs pic.twitter.com/XxbtHIqfHx
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) February 1, 2020
He’s been playing as well as anyone ever has, and if anyone can beat these odds, its Mahomes.
Michael began writing as an NBA content writer and has spent time scouting college basketball for Florida State University under Leonard Hamilton and the University of Alabama under Anthony Grant. A graduate of both schools, he covers topics focused on legal sports betting, betting odds, and casino reviews. Michael likes to golf, play basketball, hike, and kayak when not glued to the TV watching NBA games.