- The Dodgers are -210 to win the series and -205 in Game 1, with the Braves at +175 and +168.
- Atlanta has not named a Game 1 starter, and Chris Sale will not be available before Game 2 on Sunday.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, third among qualified pitchers in opponents’ average at .182, is the Dodgers’ expected Game 1 starter.
- Atlanta won five of six meetings, but the Dodgers’ run margin is 85 runs better over 162 games.
LOS ANGELES – Dodgers NLDS odds have Los Angeles at -210 to beat the Atlanta Braves and sit at -205 in Game 1 at Dodger Stadium. Atlanta earned the matchup by eliminating the Philadelphia Phillies 6-2 on Thursday night, and the series opens Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on FOX.
Yamamoto Meets A Thin Braves Staff
The two-time defending World Series champions went 100-62 to win the National League West and are chasing baseball’s first three-peat since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees.
Yamamoto is the expected Game 1 starter, though the Dodgers have not formally announced their rotation. He went 14-9 with a 2.53 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, against a league norm near 1.30. Tarik Skubal, acquired from the Detroit Tigers in an Aug. 2 trade, has a 2.61 ERA in 10 starts for Los Angeles. Skubal, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow round out a four-man rotation with Yamamoto.
Atlanta cannot match that on Saturday. Chris Sale, 14-9 with a 2.16 ERA, threw 95 pitches over 6.1 innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series and recorded the final four outs Thursday, so he is unavailable until Sunday. Tyler Mahle, who has a 1.99 ERA in nine starts for Atlanta, is out until Game 3 on Tuesday. Grant Holmes threw two innings Thursday, J.R. Ritchie is the other option and a left-handed reliever could open.
Holmes’ 3.44 ERA is 0.91 runs above Yamamoto’s, and Ritchie’s 4.91 is 2.38 above, the gap the -205 price rests on in a game with a total of 8. Triple-digit heat is in the Los Angeles forecast, and warm air helps fly balls carry.
The Series Price Sits Level With Game 1
The series price lands almost exactly on the Game 1 number at legal MLB betting sites:
| Market | Dodgers odds | Braves odds |
|---|---|---|
| Series winner | -210 | +175 |
| Game 1 moneyline | -205 | +168 |
| Wins series 3-0 | +450 | +1200 |
| Wins series 3-1 | +260 | +650 |
| Wins series 3-2 | +290 | +550 |
A team priced -205 in all five games would be near -300 to win a best-of-five. At -210 the series price instead says the market expects the Dodgers’ edge to narrow once Sale and Mahle return and the series moves to Truist Park for Game 3. With no Atlanta starter named, California sports betting odds for Game 1 can still move.
Prices differ across legal sports betting markets, and another major book has the Dodgers at -195 for the series and -210 for Game 1. At -210 the Dodgers have to advance 67.7 percent of the time to break even, against the 62.1 percent chance ESPN’s projections give them. The Braves at +175 break even at 36.4 percent against ESPN’s 37.9 percent, so the small edge in that model is on the Atlanta side.
The six exact-result prices carry about 8 points of margin, roughly double the 4 on the series winner, so a sweep ticket needs a bigger edge to clear it.
Atlanta Won The Season Series In Close Games
The Braves won five of six meetings and outscored Los Angeles 26-15, including a sweep at Truist Park from Aug. 25-27 by scores of 4-3, 6-5 and 1-0. Drake Baldwin’s leadoff homer off Yamamoto settled the finale. Three of Atlanta’s five wins came by one run, a small sample set against a full-season gap that runs the other way: the Dodgers outscored opponents 801-600, a 201-run margin, while Atlanta’s was 742-626, or 116 runs. Still, the head-to-head success makes the Braves’ +180 Georgia sports betting moneyline odds worth noting.
Díaz Is An Option, Not The Closer
Edwin Díaz, activated from the injured list Sept. 18, has thrown five scoreless innings in five appearances, allowing one hit and one walk with nine strikeouts. That is a 53 percent strikeout rate over 17 batters, but a strikeout rate needs about 60 plate appearances to settle, and his season ERA is still 8.68.
MLB.com said Los Angeles may not have a set closer, with Tanner Scott, Roki Sasaki and Díaz all viable in the ninth. That matters in a series where three of Atlanta’s wins were one-run games.
Game 2 is Sunday at 8 p.m. ET on FS1 at Dodger Stadium, and Game 3 is Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET at Truist Park. Game 4, if needed, is Wednesday at 6 p.m. ET in Atlanta, and Game 5, if needed, is Friday at 8 p.m. ET in Los Angeles.
